The Indian Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh was in Islamabad, here for the SAARC Interior Ministers’ conference. Indian media was convinced through its sources that the prospect of a meeting with his Pakistani counterpart, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan was bleak from the very start at most. The Indian media also reported that the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was to be a part of the delegation to Pakistan, and that the entire Indian contingent was pruned down to a few delegates. Ajit Doval was held back from Islamabad to make a statement; there will be no exclusive talks between Pakistan and India at any level during the 19th SAARC summit.
There has been intense pressure on the Indian government, the shambles in Kashmir have been witnessed by the world. The foreign policy moralism of India is in shatters, but it has not affected the foreign policy realism to disappear. If Rajnath Singh would have met his Pakistani counterpart, it would have sent the wrong message; at least that is what the Modi government thought. Nawaz Sharif had titled Burhan Wani as a martyr and termed the Kashmir intafada as a fight for the right of self determination, India used the epithet of terrorist for Burhan Wani and labelled the Kashmir resistance as an internal insurgency. If the Union Home Minister would have had a one on one with the Federal Minister for Interior, it would appear that India was under pressure. The world would have thought that Pakistani hardliners had brought India to one-on-one talks, that the situation in Kashmir was under the de-facto control of Islamabad. The Indian government would have faced surfeit criticism at home; from the opposition and the media.
If a one-on-one meeting would have taken place, Kashmir would most definitely have been on the agenda; at least ostensibly if not actually. This would have felt like New Dehli had played into the hands of Islamabad; to avoid this stigma, they had to avoid any and every one-on-one until the Kashmir situation soothes down.
Then again, not coming to Islamabad was never an option. India believes in hegemonial status in South Asia, an Interior Minister level conference could not have been missed be India. It would be a renunciation of India's role in South Asia.
One of India's major trepidations is whether it should talk with the civilian leadership in Pakistan if the Pakistani establishment is not on board. The appointment of Lt. Gen Nasir Janjua was seen by leading experts as a step by the Nawaz Sharif government to ameliorate the civil-military relationship in the country and to give the military a role in talks with India. In December, the National Security Advisors of Pakistan and India met in Bangkok away from the sharp eyes of the media in both countries, this meeting was one of four in a span of ten days between India and Pakistan at four different tiers, a short meeting between the Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the Paris climate summit and meetings between the foreign ministers and foreign secretaries.
Chaudhry Nisar is seen as taking the establishment's line in Pakistan, whether it is his stance on the Karachi operation or CPEC؛ he is also one of the people who are in most regular contact with the army chief along with Shahbaz Sharif. Yet he is also one of the most influential ministers in Nawaz Sharif's cabinet.
A direct meeting between the Interior ministers could have resulted in greater things; the National Security Advisors could have locked heads when necessary. But for real talks to take place, there needs to be an established agenda. This meeting could have paved the way for it. The interior ministers exercise quite an authoritative role in relation to security issues after all.
A conclave between the two could have resulted in the beginning of a new era in bilateral relations through a five tier dialogue process between the two countries; each between the foreign secretaries, foreign ministers, national security advisors, interior ministers and most importantly the prime ministers. This would have made certain that a dialogue continues one way or the other.
All in all, this was an opportunity missed by both Pakistan and India. If this meeting could have taken place, it would have made it more probable for a potential meeting between the two prime ministers in the next SAARC summit set to be held in Islamabad in November, and give it a head start.