LAHORE - The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is likely to land into leadership crisis in the days to come in case its top men, including Nawaz and Shehbaz Sharif, fall prey to the legal matters they are battling with at the moment.
The PML-N since inception has been so much Sharifs-centric that critics have to think hard to find out from among the second and third tier leadership of the party for replacement in case the Sharifs are not in the picture for any reason. An example is Musharraf era when the local leadership of the party figured very little against the politicking of Sharifs from Saudi Arabia. Sharifs spent seven years of their political career in Saudi Arabia following their imprisonment for 14 months in plane hijacking case. The party affairs were entrusted first to Begum Kalsoom Nawaz and after she left for Saudi Arabia, to Javed Hashmi. Virtually the party was run by Nawaz and Shehbaz Sharif from Jeddah.
The party became more dependent on the Sharifs after they came back in November 2007 to take active part in politics. The past is again haunting the party over the question as to who will command the PML-N in case the Sharifs are not there for any reason. And the same question is more pronounced at the moment when not only Sharifs but second tier leadership of the party is also in the docks. For political observers, the leadership question in the party is quite difficult to answer given the current legal matters besetting the Sharifs and others. It is noteworthy that a number of party offices including Punjab president of the PML-N are still lying vacant. Previously Shehbaz Sharif was holding the provincial presidentship but the office could not be filled after he was made president of the party following disqualification of Nawaz Sharif by the Supreme Court.
The party president and Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Shehbaz Sharif is in judicial custody after he served 65 days on physical remand with NAB in Ashiana Housing scandal. The NAB is also holding probe against him in Ramzan Sugar Mills alleged money laundering case. Former prime minister and PML-N Quaid Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryum Nawaz are free on account of suspension of their sentence in Avenfield reference by Islamabad High Court. Their appeal against the conviction and also that against the IHC decisions are pending hearing before the court. The accountability court is also due to decide another Azizia Mills reference against Nawaz Sharif by December 24 next.
Nawaz having passed the phase of quietness in politics after the demise of his spouse Begum Kulsoom Nawaz, is talking to media on national issues but only when he appears before the trial court. Unlike the past, he is neither vocal as he was in the public rallies nor addressing the organized media conferences or his sporadic interaction with the party men is also not being directly televised. He is rarely presiding over the party meetings and what he says therein, is being indirectly communicated to the media. Nawaz Sharif is in quite low profile while his decision making in party is also not acceptable to a rival group of lawyers and politicians after the legal bar stands on playing role by a disqualified person to that extent. As such no assurance is there that he will play a dominant role in politics in the time to come. Maryam Nawaz who got a boom in politics after July 27, 2017 decision by the Supreme Court against her father, is also not in the picture. After the SC decision she has not been seen on the political scene or on twitter. She has been heading a social media team of the party during the PM term of Nawaz Sharif. She is totally out of party politics at the moment.
The party is going to move bail plea for Shehbaz Sharif before the trial court. Not only the party but parliamentary politics will get on a high pedestal after the PML-N president and leader of the opposition is released on bail.
Shehbaz’s son and leader of the opposition in the PA Hamza Shehbaz is also being summoned by the NAB but little signs are for any impending clamp down by Bureau on him. As such he appears relatively safe. Hamza’s role in the party is more relevant to Punjab than federation which however has been domain of the elder Sharif.
As to other party leaders who may get to the commanding position in the party, they may be Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Khawaja Saad Rafique, Ahsan Iqbal, Abdul Qadir Baloch, Raja Zafarul Haq and some others. The first three are facing or likely to face NAB investigations. Khawaja Saad in particular is on a very tight rope when the NAB alleged that he was owner of the Paragon Housing Society. He is going to contest his protective bail before the LHC next week. The PTI’s Usman Dar has approached the NAB against Khawaja Asif while LNG contract case is being opened against the former PM Abbasi. None of toppers in the PML-N holds the candle against the leadership of Nawaz and Shehbaz in the interest of keeping the party rank and file, decision making and their acceptability and interaction with other political parties and leaders. As such, the party may face difficult time in case no Sharif is in the front role.
It was learnt from the party that workers were hoping bail for Shehbaz and a positive result in NAB reference against Nawaz. And in case of worse, they do not find anyone who can be called substitute for the Sharifs and so far, no concrete arrangement has been made to meet that eventuality. In the like situation, the party has constituted a penal of five top leaders to convey sentiments on the national issues and those relating to the party. They collectively spoke through the social media on a few issues and are quiet these days. This may be termed so far, an arrangement but in the opinion of the experts, their voice is not likely to match with the authority of the Sharifs in terms of effects and results.