The right way forward

The first part of the trilogy on power sector woes outlined the perceptions of various stakeholders, while the second one listed the actual issues and obstacles to its sustainability. These articles concluded that the sector was not sustainable and would have to be re-engineered. In other words, complete change has to be undertaken, while putting the privatisation plans on hold for some time, as this may end uncertainty and create the space for change. Moreover, the idea of giving some of the PSCEs on management contracts may be feasible. Additionally, the whole canvas will have to be taken up for correction, instead of any piecemeal operations as is the case at the moment. This article lays out several accessible and practical ways to improve the power sector. For this, the first issue discussed here is related to financial sustainability, which means reduced expenditures and increased revenues. Currently, the cost of service for one unit of electricity has touched the high level of Rs10, while the sale rate (even when all the assumptions for tariff setting come true) is less by nearly 20 percent. This translates into a gap of nearly Rs220 billion, and especially in the case of PEPCO/KESC where production has touched 110 billion units for 2010-11. However, reduced expenditures can be achieved through efficiency, enhancement/improvement in GENCOs and partly off-setting the fuel mix through the conversion of oil-fired power stations to coal/LNG (for now extra availability of gas seems to be quite distant). Improvement in collection and reduction in line losses in DISCOs, besides beefing up the NTDC through capacity enhancement and induction of new technologies, will surely increase revenues. Furthermore, a change in the present set-up, dynamics of tariff formulation, determination, notification, and establishment of the Central Power Purchase Agency (CPPA) as an independent entity and the fulfilment of various prerequisites to such a set-up, will be an added advantage. As capacity additions are a necessity, fast-tracking of the held-up public sector generation projects (425 MW Nandipur CCP, 525 MW Chichoki Malian CCP and 747 MW Guddu CCP) and some other quick additions in 18 months or so (among others a coal-fired power plant of 300 to 450 MW at Lakra comes to mind), upgrading PPIB (the present legislative sanction will not make any change for the better), priority for WAPDA to support thermal capacity additions through coal mainly after PEPCOs demise, will be needed to complete the job. Additional capacities, other than through the public sector, would be arranged by PPIB and the AEDB by speed tracking of the various processes at these entities and at NEPRA. WAPDA can chip in through the formulation of the public-private partnership, with a potential of 10,000 MW in the coming five years. Further, an immediate change in the Electricity Act 1910/Electricity Rules 1937/Telegraph Act 1885, the declaration of electricity bills default as a non-bailable offence, and complete independence of the sector from outside influence will surely bring in the desirable level of discipline in DISCOs operations, especially KESC, when the receivable are more than Rs350.00 billion or a staggering $4 billion, while the line loss figure shows an increasing trend. As this includes huge amounts against KESC and other governmental entities, at source deduction will have to be given greater clout and the payment/reconciliation of the outstanding bills may become the obligation of defaulting customers. Additionally, the latest DISCO Board of Directors (BODs) does not comprise experienced professionals (some of whom may be accused of nepotism), and thus new boards need to be established on the principle of filling up/arranging of the competencies that are so far eluding various PSCEs. The new BODs should be totally independent, executive in nature and also responsible for their deeds/decisions; full ownership of the operations should rest with the BODs. Delving into another facet of the power sector, it is observed that policymaking too needs to be improved. Consequently, there is need to fill up all the positions in the Ministry of Water and Power with technical resource (having hands-on experience), requiring it to be the only lead manager for the power sector reforms (of course, with due assistance from the Finance Ministry and unburdening of the Planning Commission from this onerous task, especially when sectoral experts are not available in the Commission). As the regulatory regime affects the sectors operations, we will have to take up immediate capacity building of NEPRA/OGRA and do away with the 2007 amendment in the NEPRA Act relating to the qualifications of its Chairman (presently sub judice in the Supreme Court). This will perhaps help to end the present load suppression model of power tariff, the concept of cross-tariff subsidisation, along with the lifeline consumers, and the special tariff for this class of customers. In fact, the power sector should be isolated from any requirement to bear the brunt of socio-political obligations of the federal government. On the other hand, such obligations can be discharged through targeted subsidies. The imperative data gleaned from the poverty survey can be used for this purpose. Another important factor that needs to be kept in mind is that the gaps in power supply are to remain for quite some time. One way to mitigate the shortages would be to resort to load management or loadshedding or alternately to take up measures to stop wastage in the system. All this could be implemented through the National Energy Conservation Strategy (including the PEPCO agenda), and also regular meetings of the National Energy Conservation Council and strengthening of its Secretariat at ENERCON. As conservation necessarily needs the general public to be educated, a mass awareness campaign is a must that will result in huge expenditures. This requirement can be mitigated by making changes in the present PEMRA Ordinance necessarily requiring the electronic media to carry public service messages for conservation. In case the existing ordinance has such clauses, the regulator will have to be given the necessary clout to implement the relevant clauses. In case, these steps are not taken immediately, the power sector will not come out of the crises it has been facing since 2005, or be able to make way for the implementation of the National Power Plan (NPP). Incidentally, it was mothballed after the induction of the IPPs. The implementation of the plan actually holds the key to a viable power sector, as it is designed on the least cost generation formula. It can arrange for the much needed capacities of 43,000 MW in 2015, 65,000 MW in 2020 and 1,25,000 MW in 2030. It is also important to understand that the ownership of the plan has to necessarily remain with the Ministry of Water and Power for its implementation through WAPDA, which is the only legislated entity to undertake the development of water and power related projects. Bodies, like PPIB and AEDB, who are tasked to make capacity additions, will automatically fall into the great mosaic. The possible formation of the Energy Ministry, or the National Energy Authority (NEA) in future, will not affect the above mentioned roster of activities, since new entities can take up whatever needs to be done for the improvement of the sector. Coming back to the most important conversion of the oil-fired thermal units to coal, the implementation of this programme will be spread throughout a period of 12 to 18 months. However, it will not require layoffs or shutdown as conversion equipment would be installed along with the existing equipments (mainly boilers). This would reduce the cost of generation by at least 40 percent, even while paying for the conversion. Alongside, would be the implementation of the rehab programme leading to enhanced capacities of the existing public sector plants by up to 1,000 MW. However, a cogent fuel supply system will have to be arranged so that both the conversions and the rehab modules lead to the envisaged gains. The present working of DISCOs and the NTDC can be improved with monitoring, but merit in posting will have to be ensured, especially when their operations are extremely intricate and demand high levels of honesty and intellect. Meanwhile, institutional and policy level decisions have to be taken by the federal government. As a final word, the Twenty Point Programme provides the roadmap that will reduce pressure on the government to increase power tariff and also make sectoral operations sustainable. Indeed, such efforts would change the economic landscape of the country and provide the people the required level of service in about three years. Additionally, this will create and provide the space that is needed to implement a long-term programme to correct the presently lopsided generation, fuel and customer mix. n The writer is an Engineer and President of the Institution of Electrical & Electronics Engineers Pakistan Email: cheema_tahir@yahoo.com.

ePaper - Nawaiwaqt