A long-awaited eventuality is finally taking shape. The US is pulling out its forces from Afghanistan; and its pulling them out fast to complete the withdrawal by the 20th anniversary of 9/11. More than half have already packed up and gone. The remaining withdrawal seems well on target. As it takes momentum, the ground situation in Afghanistan is changing dramatically.
On the one hand, the Taliban continues to maintain the pressure of their advances. On the other, the continued retreat of the Afghan army and the growing fear among the people is raising many questions. The Afghan Taliban gained an unexpected strategic advantage by capturing aTajik border town of Sher Khan Bandar a few days ago. Since then, they have laid siege to the city of Kunduz.
In the past, the Taliban have twice taken control of the city, but both times the occupation lasted only a short time. Residents of the city are terrified of the past memories and the current situation.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has recently made it clear that the United States will not be given bases in the country after the withdrawal. He has expressed concern that if a broad-based political government is not formed in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops, there is a risk of civil war in the country. Many bitter memories and events in the history of Afghanistan bear witness to the fact that this fear is not so unfounded.
In the mid-1980s, when Russian forces decided to withdraw, there were fears that the situation would spiral out of control without the formation of an alternative broad-based political government. Former Foreign Secretary Riaz Muhammad Khan in his book “Afghanistan and Pakistan; Conflict, Extermism and Resistance to Modernity “describes in detail the diplomatic activities of those days. Pakistani officials asked Russia to postpone its withdrawal for a while so that an alternative political structure could be formed in the meantime. But after being badly bruised and defeated in Afghan conflict, Russia decided on withdrawing according to its scheduled program and took the path of return. Thus leaving the power vacuum for the warring factions.
What happened next is part of Afghan history. In Pakistan, then-President Zia-ul-Haq, who was also the architect of the Afghan war, had sharp differences between him and then-Prime Minister Muhammad Khan Junejo over the hasty signing of the Afghan peace agreement. After the Russian withdrawal, the Mujahideen and other warring factions clashed, bloodshed continued for many years. Kabul and other cities were severely affected by this bloody conflict and the battle for the throne. The flow of refugees from Afghanistan intensified. The country completely descended into chaos and turmoil for the years to come.
As this horrific situation dragged on, friendly countries brought all the warring factions in Saudi Arabia together for talks in the quest of peace. After plononged haggling, finally a peace agreement was reached. In view of the bitter incidents of trashed agreements and broken promises in the past, the peace agreement was signed in the Haram Sharif so that all parties would abide by the agreement. But what happened next was against expectations.
The Taliban emerged in that prolonged chaotic and war-torn environment as a new force. The people and the warring factions were so tired and exhausted that Afghan Taliban took control of most of Afghanistan in a very short period of time; many a times with least resistance and finally established their own government.
Afghanistan is at a critical juncture once again. The Afghan government’s test is whether it will be able to survive. If so, will they be able to develop a working relationship with the Taliban? The test for the Afghan Taliban is whether they will continue to fight for dominance over the entire country or whether they will be able to give political space to their opponents for coexistence and pave the way for a broad-based political solution. If not, God forbid, the repercussions of the 80’s and 90’s will continue to linger. If so, Pakistan may bear the fallout once again. Its imperative for Pakistan to stay neutral and let the Afgan power groups decide their own fate.