The possibility of World War III is a hot topic, which is being widely discussed these days in media and off media particularly by worried souls who have seen and experienced WW2.
The immediate warring groups appear to be US, India and Japan versus Republic of China, Russian Federation and Islamic Republic of Iran.
The situation is highly unpredictable and confusing. The main cause of belligerent language is the US policy of carrot and stick On the one hand, the US’ contribution towards transfer of knowledge, technology, globalisation, promotion of democratic culture and economic system of capitalism, is extremely huge, while, on the other hand, the US has been fighting wars against most of the world – starting from South America to Germany and downward to Asian States. The main concern is the fear of devastation which nuclear weapons on both sides can bring to natural realities of earth, water, air and life itself.
Both sides fully understand that war could not be decisive as it was there in previous centuries. Even though the group ‘A’ sounds more powerful, the other group ’B’ is sufficiently capable of inflicting crippling damage to the adversary. Victory for any of the two will be a futile endeavor.
This futility of war effort is a sound reason against possibility of war-mongering.
But, God forbid, in pursuit of Trotsky’s dictum that, “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you,” it can be argued that proxy war seems the only plausible possibility today as nuclear flashpoints exist in Taiwan, North Korea, Iran, Israel, Syria, Ukraine and Kashmir. In the presence of nuclear sensitive issues, a likely possibility is turning of proxy war into WWIII.
Let us, therefore, discuss the flashpoints one by one. In case of China-Taiwan relations, the past hasn’t been forgotten because nationalism today in China is as alive as anywhere in the world. There are still Chinese alive who have seen foreign invasions: Japanese, British, French and American. These Chinese still relate stories about colonial control when foreign rulers moved about leisurely on Chinese roads and rivers. A glimpse of Chinese nationalism has been portrayed by the characters of Bruce Lee and Jackie Chen where they are shown fighting mostly either against Japanese or Americans.
The point is that the Chinesem in the process of building a new China in the 21st Century of higher science and technology, have not forgotten the past when they were addicted to opium. That is why; China is the only country where two opposing systems peacefully co-exist – one for socialist China and other for west-oriented Taiwan.
In fact, the present day China has learnt how to cope with modern realities. Propaganda campaigns and efforts to contain China cannot stop its right to progress. The border issues with the Russian Federation have been resolved, and together, they have constituted Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China has also built roads and found Sea Routes towards Eurasia, gas pipe from Russia to China. Economic links like C-PEC are in the pipe line.
The huge Chinese military might has been built by such artistic hands and dexterous minds as Mao and Chou En Lai that western world was compelled to extend friendly hand to admit China as respectable permanent member of Security Council.
As for North Korea, it can be destroyed and damaged to any extent, but not intimidated. Any amount of high-handedness will result in equal destruction of South Korea where American soldiers have been stationed since WW2. It is hoped such an occurrence wouldn’t be acceptable to the West.
Iran is a different preposition. After WWII the US replaced Britain for the role of super power. One of the first victims was highly popular Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq in 1950s. The problem started to unearth on the issue of Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. It was generating for more profits for British Government than the Iranian Government. The moment Mossadeq nationalised oil, there was coup of 1953 against him, and sanctioned were introduced against Iran.
Raza Shah came to throne. Although he never recognised Israel, there were military, intelligence and economic ties between two countries. The US itself offered Raza Shah nuclear capability when Iran started acting as policeman of Asia.
Meanwhile, Khamenei, who had read an article entitled “Journey to the Land of Israel” by Jalal Al-e Ahmad, was angry and upset that the writer had painted a rosy picture about Jewish Israel. He was also surprised to learn that Al-e Ahmad had called Israel a “Velayat”, a term describing a model state shepherded by clerical guardians, less than prophets but more than politicians. In contrast, Arab states including Saudi Arabia (the location of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina) are dismissed as puppets of the West and slaves of the oil companies.
Raza Shah’s days and Al-e Ahmad’s observations are minor reminders of the fact when Israel and Iran enjoyed close relations and “Israel looked like an ideal Muslim state.” Nevertheless, it must be remembered that mutual hostility between Iran and Israel/US never ended as decade old war, spy games, intrigues, bank battles and assignations did havoc to the relation.
In this state of affairs, it is highly creditable if on 4thJuly 2015 Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, P5+1 (Five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany and European Union) were able to document a deal with the West on the Iranian nuclear issue for peaceful purposes and relaxation of all sanctions.
As for war with Russia, the American Senate was warned a year or two earlier by General Mark Milley that “Russia is an existential threat” because it is the only country in the world which “retains a nuclear capability to destroy United States.” Majority of the American leaders agree with the above observation. It is further maintained that revival of Russia under Vladimir Putin is a different matter as the Russians seem to be prepared to use nuclear weapons if things become uncontrollable. Certainly there are chances when Russian clash with NATO can easily escalate. Even if it happens, the writer of this article hopes that war would still be avoided and reverted.
One reason against war is the astonishing figures of casualties which can be deleted neither from history pages nor from man’s imagination. In the last 100 years, four million American youth were sent to Europe to participate in World Great wars. Civil and military death casualties of Americans and Europeans in WW2 estimated 60 million people. Civil and military deaths in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Iraq and Afghanistan are still beside the point. And present day nuclear war would be a terrifying holocaust – a panorama of total destruction, decay and devastation.
The most miserable and the most neglected are the people of Kashmir who have been arrogantly denied the UN option for plebiscite. The simple routine, expanding over seven decades, is that the youth of this land demand their right to vote. To subdue their voice, the Indian forces armed with guns shoot bullets at them. Those who have not fallen down pick up small rocks or pebbles from the roadside and hurl them towards Indian militia.
Price of war in terms of human sacrifice has always been very high. This article, therefore, ends by asking, “What one should do when it is a matter of survival and freedom?”