ISLAMABAD   -  The PTI led government would miss the GDP growth target by wide margin during its first year of its five years constitutional tenure.

The provisional growth of GDP for the year 2018-19 has been estimated at 3.3 percent. The previous government of PML-N had projected the GDP growth at 6.2 percent for the ongoing fiscal year. However, the National Account Committee projected that incumbent government would miss the GDP growth by wide margin due to slowdown in agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors. The GDP growth had recorded at 5.8 percent in last fiscal year 2017-18, which was revised to 5.2 percent by incumbent government.

The international financial institutions like International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank had already projected that Pakistan would miss its GDP growth by wide margin in year 2018-19.

The 101st meeting of the National Accounts Committee to review the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was held on Thursday which was chaired by the Secretary, Ministry of Planning, Development & Reforms. Provisional estimates for the year 2018-19 for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) have been presented on the basis of the latest data available for six to nine months.

The growth of the agricultural sector would record growth of 0.85 percent during ongoing fiscal year as against the target of 3.8 percent. Crop sector faced the consequences of acute water shortages during the first half of the 2018 and thus only wheat depicted positive growth of 0.5% and cotton, rice and sugarcane witnessed negative growth at -17.5%, -3.3%, and -19.4%, respectively. Other crops (such as onion, tomatoes and fruits) show growth of 1.95% mainly because of increase in production of pulses and oil seeds. Livestock sector registered a growth of 4% whereas forestry has grown at 6.5% due to increase in production of timber.

The industrial sector is estimated to record growth of 0.85 percent during current financial year as compared to target of 7.6 percent. The mining and quarrying sector declined by 1.96%. The large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector, which is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2018 to February 2019), showed a contraction of 2.1%. Electricity and gas sub sector has grown by 40.5% mainly due to better performance of WAPDA & distribution companies and IPPs. The construction activity has decreased by 7.6%.

The services sector is estimated to register growth of 4.7 percent as against the target of 6.5 percent during present fiscal year. Services sector remained major contributor to economic growth as its value added increased by 4.7 percent. Within services sector, wholesale and retail trade sector grew by 3.1% whereas transport, storage and communication sector has registered a growth of 3.3%. Finance and insurance sector shows an overall increase of 5.1% on account of positive contributions from scheduled banks (5.3%), non-schedule banks (24.6%) and insurance activities (12.8%) despite decline in central banking by 12.5%. The general government services has grown by 7.99% and other private services, a set of computer related activities, education, health & social work, NGOs etc. has contributed positively at 7.1%.