Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran’s capital, Tehran, on 31 July 2024, with Israel blamed for his killing. Haniyeh had been in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. A day later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel had delivered crushing blows to Iran’s proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. News of the assassination sparked outrage across Palestine and raised concerns of a wider regional conflict in the context of Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza. Approximately 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, now in its 11th month, with nearly 100,000 wounded. Israel launched its assault on Gaza with the goal of eliminating Hamas and killing its leaders, following the group’s 7 October attack in southern Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,139 people and more than 200 taken captive. In response to Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “harsh punishment,” stating, “We consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and difficult incident that happened in the territory of the Islamic Republic.”
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire along their borders, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been targeting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and surrounding waters. However, Iran’s promised retaliation has yet to materialise, and the “impending punch” is being interpreted in various ways. Some prominent regional analysts suggest that the so-called “Axis of Resistance” (which includes the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Syrian government, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and Hamas) is capable of launching attacks on Israel from multiple fronts: the Houthis from the south, Hezbollah from the north, Hamas from the west, and Iran from the east. Islamic militias in both Iraq and Syria could also be involved. A key feature of Iranian rhetoric is its anti-American and anti-Israeli stance, although this is not fully shared by the Arab world or the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Despite their differences, these factions are united by a common enemy.
Among the Axis of Resistance, Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah is the strongest, both in terms of ideology and historical ties. Hezbollah’s centralised structure allows Iran greater influence over the group’s leadership. Iran also maintains strong connections with both the Houthis and Hamas, though the religious ties are less intimate. However, these groups operate with more independence than Hezbollah. Despite this, Iran provides significant support to all of these factions.
Western analysts note that Tehran serves as the meeting point for the different elements of this resistance, helping to maintain logistical and ideological cohesion. However, Iran cannot command these factions as if they were its own army. Its influence varies, with significant sway over strategic decisions but less control over the tactical and operational actions of each group. This dynamic explains why Iran’s much-anticipated revenge has yet to materialise, as it navigates a delicate balance of avoiding direct confrontation with the USA, Israel, and their allies.
More critically, Western governments and leaders fail to resolve Middle Eastern conflicts sustainably because they overlook the complexities of these issues and fail to scrutinise the factors driving them. Many in the US and Europe mistakenly believe that the removal of external actors will lead to a smooth resolution of the region’s problems. Instead, each conflict in the Middle East requires careful evaluation based on its unique characteristics. While Iran may have considerable influence, it is essential to remember that all actors and factions are pursuing their own objectives.
In the meantime, as innocent Palestinians continue to suffer under the brutal onslaught by Israel in Gaza, the United Nations, the OIC, the Arab League, and other international organisations remain largely inactive. The ultimate consequences of the ongoing war in Gaza and its impact on global geopolitics and Middle Eastern security remain uncertain. As Netanyahu and his far-right government seem determined to occupy all of Palestine, using Hamas’s tactical error as justification, it is imperative that the Arab world, Iran, and other powerful Muslim nations convene an immediate OIC summit to present a unified diplomatic and economic front against the USA and Israel. The wisdom of the old saying, “United we stand; divided we fall,” has already cost the Muslim world dearly. Now is the time to unite and deliver the real blow to save innocent Muslims in Palestine and beyond.
Saleem Qamar Butt
The writer is a retired senior army officer with experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geo-political and strategic security issues.