LAHORE -  In sync with emerging markets, KSE-100 index too exhibited volatility in the outgoing week. Global sell off, on-going pension liabilities case against big banks and falling oil prices dented investor sentiments. Absence of any major positive triggers and continued foreign selling did not help either. Investors preferred to book profits or remain sidelined. This led the market to close at 44,809 points, down 492 points (-1.1 percent), marginally lower on WoW basis.

Traded volumes were down 4 percent whereas traded value was down 3 percent during the week. On the sector front; Cement and E&Ps declined by 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively whereas Food & Personal Care was up 1 percent. Market Capitalization of Commercial Banks remained flat.

Foreigners were net sellers of US$8.5mn worth of shares during the week vs. buying of $12.6m during the last week. On the local front, Individuals were net buyers of $8.7mn whereas mutual funds were net sellers of $5.0m.

Experts said that in the shortened week, due to holiday, the market see-sawed as week opened negative post heightened volatility in the international market, though showing relative resilience to MSCI EM Index, which dropped 5.5 percent WoW, as local bourse lost just 1.1 percent WoW. However, a limited recovery was witnessed in the following days of the week but market couldn't sustain momentum due to lack of triggers.

Market participation slowed down during the week, as evident from 3.9 percent contraction in ADTO to 245mn shares while the ADTV reduced 3 percent to USD86.9mn. Foreign investors sold USD8.5mn worth of equities during the week whereas Individuals (USD8.7mn) and Insurance Companies (USD6.9mn) remained buyers amongst locals. On the other hand, Mutual Funds and Banks/DFI remained net sellers and offloaded scrips worth USD5.0mn and USD4.3m, respectively.

On the macro front, liquid foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) fell by USD173mn to USD13.1bn taking total reserves to USD19.2bn. The change was witnessed due to external debt servicing and other official payments.

Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) is likely to report auto sales numbers for the month of Jan'18 in the upcoming week, where above expected sales could potentially draw investor attention towards the sector. Furthermore, results announcements will be on investors' radar next week where any positive surprises could ignite investor interest in select scrips/sectors. Major result announcements for the upcoming week are MCB, MEBL and BAHL. Our top picks are UBL, HBL, PPL, MARI, LUCK, EFERT, HUBC, NML, ASTL and INDU

According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan exports were up 11 percent YoY in Jan 2018 to US$1.2bn. However, imports were up 19 percent YoY to US$5.6bn, while country's trade deficit touched $3.6b (the highest ever level).

During the week, Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Mian Saqib Nisar observed that the court was not limiting its review of the Elections Act 2017 to Nawaz Sharif alone, and had to look at the bigger picture to ascertain its implications. The remark was made while a three-member Supreme Court (SC) bench headed by Justice Nisar heard arguments from multiple petitioners.

The government has started negotiations with the UAE and Swiss governments to collect information regarding Pakistanis holding billions of dollars of offshore assets and bank accounts to bring these Pakistanis into the tax net. We have started negotiations with authorities in Dubai and Switzerland to get information about properties and other assets of Pakistanis," said Minister of State for Finance Rana Muhammad Afzal while talking to reporters after a meeting of the Standing Committee on Law and Justice at the Parliament House.

During the week, Pakistan's Peoples Party (PPP) has asked Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) members of provincial assemblies for support in Senate elections on March 3, 2018. PPP MPA Saeed Ghani said that PPP would take benefit from the MQM-P's internal differences in the Senate polls.

Century Paper & Board (CEPB) disclosed its 2QFY18 financial results reporting earnings of Rs283mn (EPS 1.8), up 39 percent YoY. Sales improved by 23 percent to Rs4.9bn, while gross margins improved from 12 percent to 14 percent from same period last year.

Oil prices fell to their lowest in seven weeks with WTI trading below US$61/bbl amid fears of rising global supplies after Iran announced plans to increase production and US crude output hit record highs.