North Koreas rocket launching

The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has been fast reaching toward the attainment of sophisticated missile and civilian technology and going beyond many nuclear armed and advanced military nations. The country has achieved remarkable confidence and trust in its indigenous nuclear and missile technological advancement over the last couple of decades. The DPRK government announced on April 5, 2009 that it has propelled a satellite into space from the Musudan-ri in North Hamgyong Province. Later, DPRKs Deputy UN Ambassador, Pak Tok Hun, told the United Nations Security Council at New York that the launched rocket was a peaceful satellite to transfer data. The government claimed it is now one of ten countries in the world that could independently put a satellite into orbit. Analysts believe that the launching cost could reach US$300 million, equal to ten percent of the countrys annual trade volume. Several countries, however, do not subscribe to the claims made by the government of the North Korea. United States of America, Japan, and South Korea believe that the North Koreas missile launching is a cover-up ballistic missile and not a civilian satellite launching as nothing was sent into orbit. United States contended that the satellite was a failure and the rocket travelled 3,100 km. The US also suspects that the rocket was a Taepodong-2, an Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), which could hit the Alaska and Hawaii in America. The US says that even the earlier 2006 testing was lost within 40 seconds as this was carried out after what they called the first failure in 1998. Contrary to US record, there are reports about the success of the launching from Japanese and South Korean sources. For instance, Japanese defence expert, Kensuke Ebata, at Takushoku University, says that the rocket was larger than the Taepodong-1 missile. Harunori Nagata, professor at Hokkaido University, observed that the launch was stable, and seemed to be very well done. South Korea's National Intelligence Service described the North Koreas latest testing as a successful rocket testing. Therefore, as there are claims and counter-claims, it is doubtful to ascertain the originality whether it was satellite or ICBM. While reacting to the North Koreas rocket launching, US President Barack Hussein Obama stated on the same day in the Czech Republics capital of Prague: The rocket could be used for long-range missile. Rules must be biding. Violations must be punished, he went on to react. Several of western capitals strongly reacted to North Koreas rocket launching. They, however, refrained from levelling a fresh round of economic sanctions against North Korea. Looking at the complicated regional scenario in North East Asia, they probably fear that new sanctions would not work. Many argue that North Koreas latest rocket launching will be a test case for the Sino-American moving ties and see how the former will use its influence to tackle down the gravity of the tension between North Korea and the United States of America. China, as usual, has been advising restraint on all sides. Likewise China, reaction from Russia was also muted. Both China and Russia do not see new sanctions against North Korea, which they fear as counter-productive and further complicate peace prospects on the Korean Peninsula. For South Korea, the North Koreas rocket launching could trigger rearmament on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea considers nuclear, missiles, and arms development in the north somewhat as creating imbalance on the Korean Peninsula. South Korean Prime Minister, Han Seung-Soo, declared on April 6, 2009 that his country must consider revising a defence accord with the United States, which restricts missile development. The US-South Korea military alliance is based on a mutual defence treaty of 1953. The accord prohibits the south not to go beyond a 300 km range. The south is considering to revise the alliance in wake of new strategic realities occurring on the Korean Peninsula. Japan strongly reacted to the latest North Koreas rocket launching as it went over Japan. However, it is deferring banning of exports to that country, fearing that the early sanctions of exports and travel restrictions could not yield desired outcome and that a much stronger reaction, in conformity with the international community, would help resolve the issue of North Koreas nuclear and missile issues. Restriction on cash transfers to the DPRK is on the table, a possible new Japanese restriction. Nevertheless, Japan remained unable to convince the sharply divided VETO powers at the United Nations Security Council on April 8, 2009 to erect new sanctions. In wake of new North Koreas rocket launching, it must be pointed out here that after putting signature on the new guidelines for non-proliferation regime at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last August to allow the US-India nuclear deal to be materialised, Japans 'pious non-nuclear stance has become invalid. Therefore, setback to Japans latest United Nations Security Council calling was natural. So much so, even a preliminary condemnation statement was not issued by the Security Council. In Japan, House of Representatives (Lower House), and House of Councillors (Upper House) of the Japanese Diet, on April 8 adopted a resolution condemning the North Koreas rocket launching. Considering Japans support for the revising of the IAEA guidelines, this condemnation seems to be a double-standard game. The North Koreas launching should be viewed from the theory of rapidly emerging multi-polarity in international relations. New centres of power keep emerging out of outrages. Undoubtedly, the United Nations is increasingly becoming helpless in preventing conflicts and interventions. The World Order is at grave stake as new realities are unfolding each day. It is no longer the counter-terrorism to reshape the global order. China, Russia, and Islamic countries couple with the counter-veiling efforts by a host of nations and groups would be leading the world toward transformation and change in the on-going era. Emerging World Order cannot simply be stopped by sanctions, condemnations, or regime-change theory and action. In the final analysis, North Koreas latest launching is nothing but a new example of proving this assumption. The Six-Party Talks, consisting of the United States of America, Russia, China, Republic of Korea, Japan, and the DPRK together with UN support is an encouraging model for engagement and conflict resolution on the Korean Peninsula. The success of these talks seems essential for bringing harmony and cooperation in North East Asia. The writer is a research fellow (East Asia) at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute

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