ISLAMABAD - The ongoing spell of abnormal rains is expected to continue intermittently during this week keeping the temperatures in 30s degree Celsius. In the middle of this week, the rainy system will take Sindh and Balochistan too in its grip.
May is the driest month of the year in Pakistan and is also known for its heat intensity. It took a sharp reversal to the norms and gave a surprise of monsoon-like wet weather coupled with a February-chill in its winds. People forgot the burning heat wave.
The people in the cities are enjoying this rare slip of pleasant climatic conditions of May with least outages of power supply, as the demand went down to minimal. But who care the farmers who feed their fellow countrymen with wheat flour throughout the years and now their harvests are at stake. Prevailing wet weather has caused huge pre- and post-harvest losses to the gross wheat production.
According to Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the reason behind this abnormality is El Niño, a phenomenon that can shatter the global weather patterns.
Dr Ghulam Rasul, chief meteorologist PMD, said that for hundreds of years (the first available record dates back 1567), the South American fishermen have noticed the appearance of warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean along the coast of Ecuador and Peru. Due to warmer sea surface, the fish go deeper in nutrient rich cold water and fish-catch drops low to the uneconomical levels. As the phenomenon typically becomes apparent around Christmas, they named it "El Niño", which means "the Christ Child". Over the hot ocean water, the air warms and rises up and winds rush from other parts to fill the gap.
The strongest El Niño occurred in the recorded history of planet Earth was 1998 which triggered 3-year long drought in Pakistan incurring loss worth of $5 billion. The global models predict the forthcoming of the El Niño of same magnitude but the impacts on different socio-economic sectors may vary.
Warming oceanic waters started sending signals in April during which heavy snowfall over the high mountains was witnessed which was more than the winter seasons. Onset of spring and sprouting of fruit trees were delayed in mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan, on the other hand, wheat maturity was delayed in all the four provinces by at least 2-3 weeks, he added.
Emerging El Niño will reach the climax in July-August and is likely to cast negative impacts on Pakistan summer monsoon rains. Weaker monsoon may tend to compensate deficient river flows with accelerated snow/glacier melt as heat waves are expected to prevail in Gilgit-Baltistan region during summer. Water managers must act wisely during El Niño to reserve stocks of limited available water for Rabi sowing.
Cotton growers are cautioned not to plant their crop in the next few days as the rain will make a surface soil crust and seedlings will not be able to emerge out of soil.