When it comes to Afghanistan the narrative has always come from the army or the Americans. We accepted the narrative that USSR was out to reach the warm waters and would invade Pakistan. We declared Afghanistan’s war as war against Islam. We labeled all the terrorists and fighters from across the world as Mujahideen and trained them to fight the USSR army and its supported regime. When the USSR left Afghanistan we allowed USA to disengage from the region and had to face the brunt of war hardened fighters and the influx of Afghan refugees, which changed the Pakistani culture for good. Gun running and drugs entered every corner of Pakistan.

Then came 9/11 and the American invasion of Afghanistan in October. Again we accepted the American narrative and joined the global war on terror with full force. Though India has no common border with Afghanistan it continued to make inroads in the political important role while the US pushed Taliban out from main towns and worked on ending Al-Qaeeda. It allowed India to dominate in the internal affairs of Pakistan calling upon New Delhi to do more in Afghanistan. In the words of Hamid Karzai ‘to do more means to fight extremism and violation of sovereignty from across the Durand Line’, which means the USA itself does not want to end the crisis in Afghanistan. The USA knows very well that India is using the Afghan border to spread terror in Pakistan and to destabilise its tribal areas. Pakistan on the other hand realizes that Indian influence in Afghanistan is growing and is thus sticking to remaining aloof but not taking action against the Haqqani network or Afghan Taliban.

It is the USA’s longest war, i.e. 16 years. The stalemate in Afghanistan continues. The casualties continue to rise on both sides. According to a Pentagon report the Afghan government with the US and NATO support controls 60 percent of Afghanistan while Taliban control 29 percent. A year ago the Afghan government’s share was 70 percent. 807 Afghan troops were killed in first two months of this year. And fighting season is about to begin. Obama administration’s strategy was to support Afghan forces rather than fighting with them and seeking permanent settlement. It introduced the AfPak policy, which was a term widely criticised by Pakistanis especially General Musharraf. Obama was not interested in Afghanistan and may have completely withdrawn the troops had it not been the Pentagon advice against it. The USA wants its share in whatever deals are made in Central Asia and to keep check as China moves out of its sphere.

The Trump administration is planning to revise its Afghan policy. April 13 the USA used ‘mother of all bombs’ to show its resolve to fight terror and send message to other states that the USA means business when it comes to show its power in the changing unipolar world. The new US strategy includes more US troops and changes in what the military calls ‘rules of engagement’ laying out when force can be used. The US could be sending about 3,000 more troops and would seek more NATO troops for Afghanistan in a summit to be held on May 25.

The question Trump administration must look into is whether the Afghan government is capable of delivering or not. It makes tall claims and goes to the extent of even exchange of fire with Pakistani forces on the border, even though it knows the whole move could backfire. Afghan forces are not capable of securing the country. The Taliban are not interested in negotiations as there seems to be little incentive for them considering India would not want its allies in Afghanistan to share power with them. Trump administration has to decide whether to allow India to dictate its policy in Afghanistan or stamp its own authority in ending the stalemate, which has till now cost American taxpayers a lot of money. According to Congressional Research Service, a single soldier cost is $3.9 million per year. That may be astonishing but that is how it is. Now the 3,000 more soldiers the cost is going to be high. Then there is the $23 billion request to boost Afghan security. Trump wants to abandon the Obama policy and this could be the start of a new war game plan wherein American soldiers may continue to be in the land of conflict for years to come but this time they will not just be there but also fight with Afghan forces to end the stalemate.

With ISIS in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda too being there, it may not be possible for the US to eliminate them. This is so because there is no transportation of groups from one place to another. They are all extremists and they like to take the terror name that has more market value. Today ISIS is the biggest name of terror and extremists, whether they are in Europe or Afghanistan are trying to use this label. USA, if it wants to end the war on terror, has to take all terror groups seriously because they are all interlinked or follow the same ideals. It should not support one and threaten another. Hikmatyar was once Prime Minister. Then he was declared a terrorist for many years and now he returns to Kabul with respect and honour.

In coming days the Trump administration will decide what will be the new rules of engagement in Afghanistan in a region which the Pentagon officials say is tricky. As Senator John McCain says ‘If the present status quo prevails, then there’s no end to it.’