Slump in auto sales

THERE are many ways to look at the slump in auto sales on the national level, which have gone down by 50 percent in seven months. The first, most obvious one would be to look at things on the surface, the way they undeniably are: there has been a decrease in the sales of the vehicles, because of a decrease in the demand, which is defined as not just the willingness but the ability to buy something. But do we see this as indicative of a general decline in the aggregate demand of the country? If that, indeed, is true, then the government needs to do what governments the world over do in such cases: lower interest rates to spur commercial activity. The case for doing so in Pakistan has been made often enough recently. The incessant hiking up of interest rates to fight inflation should be stopped and reversed. The IMF, which has put this up - if not explicitly stated - as a condition, could be convinced by the government to thaw out a little. There is, however, another school of thought that does not think this. There is no decrease in aggregate demand in the country. In fact, a bulk of the inflation, they say, is being caused by its excess. That there is a structural imbalance in the economy in the grand square-off between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The latter continues to outstrip the former. In other words, that it is inflation of the "demand-pull" as opposed to the "cost-push" variety. If that, indeed, is true, then the slump in auto sales might actually, much to the horror of the automakers, be interpreted as positive. The very easy terms for personal car finance lead not just to a general credit glut but a glut on the roads themselves. We clearly had and continue to have more cars than our road infrastructure can handle. Public transport remains woefully neglected by the government. Maybe a rationalization of the credit policy would appear to "correct" the quantum demand of cars, one that would only appear to be, not actually be a slump.

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