The recent statement of Tajik president in favor of the Tajik Taliban and against the Afghan Taliban should be taken seriously as Tajikistan is a very close strategic partner of the US whereas its economy and defence is fully dependent on Russia. The present Russian troops can take over Tajikistan in no time. The President of Tajikistan has backed Russia to invade Ukraine which is perhaps the only choice available with president Tajikistan.
There will be another migration of Tajik Taliban refugees from Tajikistan to Afghanistan which will create further problems.
The recent reports on the talks between Resident Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin should be worrying for the world. According to the available reports, Russia is fully ready to attack Ukraine and the arrangements to attack on Ukraine are:
As per the intelligence reports the US has shared information regarding the buildup of Russian forces for rapid and large-scale military action against Ukraine. The American assessment is that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine within this month.
The troops could cross into Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border, as well as via Belarus with about 100 battalion tactical groups. The strength comes to about 100,000 soldiers.
Moscow had also called up tens of thousands of reserves. It is also noteworthy that on February 1, 2022, Russia will enforce the national standard of urgent burials in wartime.
As per the US assessment, it is also felt that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to happen. As per the intelligence reports, the US has shared information regarding the buildup of Russian forces for a rapid and large-scale military action against Ukraine. The American assessment on which the diplomacy has been briefed assumes that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine at the earliest. The troops could cross into Ukraine from Crimea.
Let us hope and pray that the dialogue in Geneva on Ukraine row is settled between the US and Russia. If it is not settled then serious troubles are expected to happen in central Asia and their effects will be on Afghanistan too if Tajikistan is treated like Crimea by Russia as being reported by the western media.
Russia will be replicating the attack on Ukraine like it did on Afghanistan in 1979 and also on Georgia in 2008. In the given situation, the US is likely to retain its geopolitical hold through its allies in Central Asia. The US has also announced sanctions against Russia if Ukraine is attacked and it has threatened other courses of action too. It is important to mention that the US has got a stronghold in Tajikistan with the following written understanding:
This war will be more harmful for Russia and it may become the signature for the next world war. The international community must ask why Russia wants to invade Ukraine.
President Putin perceives that Ukraine is a vital buffer for Russian security. In the last two centuries; invaders from Europe ravaged Russia. In 1812, Napoleon attacked Russia, defeating the Russian army and the German invasion of Russia was also into Ukraine in 1941.
American annoyance with Russia for interfering in Ukraine is quite obvious from the statement of the US administration. The Biden administration retreated its warnings to Russia over a potential invasion of Ukraine stating that, “We have been clear that there will be significant consequences for Russia’s attacks. The penalties would be coordinated closely with US allies and partners and would severely damage Russia’s economy. Such a move would also result in NATO capabilities being moved closer to Russia.”
The role of anti-Afghan Taliban factions in Tajikistan is becoming more visible by every passing day. The president of Tajikistan has said that his government will not recognise the Taliban rule over Afghanistan unless the ethnic Tajik minority is accorded a “worthy role” in running of the country by other countries. Emomali Rahmon made these remarks recently:
Afghanistan unrest has sparked a surge of eth no-patriotism among some quarters in Tajikistan. The democratic party of Tajikistan, earlier this month deployed the ethnic card by talking in a public appeal about how and what happening in Afghanistan was a “genocide of the Taliban carried out against non-Pashtun people.”
It is also very worrying that this invasion is not going to be restricted to Ukraine where 1/3rd of the Ukrainian are settled. The Tajik faction of Taliban has already migrated to Tajikistan where India is also giving full support to the Tajik faction of Taliban. The invasion of Tajikistan means that Russia will be at the doorstep of Afghanistan.
It is worrying for Pakistan that the invasion of Ukraine can further expand troubles in Tajikistan and the two world powers, Russia and the US may get in this conflict triggering world war 3. Obviously, this will energise the Tajik Taliban factions and the opposition within Tajikistan whereas Al-Qaeda, Daish and TTP Pakistan has already got some signatures with Tajik Taliban and Uzbek Taliban.
I had been advocating that TTP Pakistan is getting strengthened which will be ultimately used against Pakistan. TTP Pakistan was part of the removal of the fence from the border scheme. We already know that the Intelligence Chief of Nuristan, Afghanistan personally supervised the removal of the fence from the International Border (Durand Line) which clearly demonstrates the strategic understanding between the Afghan Taliban and TTP Pakistan against Pakistan.
I had been consistently advocating since years back that Daesh has made its ingress in Pakistan and it has its sleeping cells starting from Daska, Sialkot, Rahim Yar Khan, Karachi, Awaran and Quetta. 6 Daesh terrorists have been claimed to be killed by the Quetta Police. These killings of Daesh’s terrorists should be treated as clear warning about the presence of Daesh and their future attacks in Pakistan especially in Chitral, Gilgit Baltistan and other sensitive areas in the country.
The growing tense situation in central Asia will further energise the terrorists and we noticed that many terrorist acts have been claimed by Daesh in Pakistan.
The terrorists will get huge space from the unrest in central Asia and the anti Afghan Taliban.
The government will have more unrest and the unrest in Afghanistan is eventually detrimental for Pakistan.
The views expressed above are solely mine & in the national interest and do not necessarily represent the views of my party.