The latest Pakistan National Human Development Report (NHDR) was published by the United Nations Development Programme in 2017. The last NHDR report, published in 2003, focused on poverty, growth, and governance. The latest report was an instant hit: it was all over the news, TV and social media. The phrase demographic dividend became part of any intellectual discussion. This was one of the first comprehensive studies conducted on the status of the youth in the country and it looked at the available opportunities for them. The report focused on the three key drivers of youth empowerment: quality education, gainful employment, and meaningful engagement. These three drivers are essential to harness the true potential of the youth. The NHDR 2017 found limited opportunities for youth, especially young women.
At present, Pakistan has the largest population of youth under 30 in its history. The youth cohort covers young people from the age 15-29 and this cohort forms a third of Pakistan’s population. This youth bulge can be a bane or a boon depending on opportunities available to them. The NHDR 2017 reported that the youth bulge will start to decrease after three decades so immediate actions are required from the government to fully engage and harness the potential of the youth.
After 5 years of the NHDR 2017, the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) recently published a report titled Pakistan Opportunity to Excel: Now and the Future which reminds us of where the country stands on the provision of opportunity to her bourgeoning youth population. Limited to only 21 pages, the authors estimate the findings of the Labour Force Survey 2018-2019. The economic outlook of the country has not changed since 2019 as coronavirus crippled the little economic growth the country had anticipated. The resilience of the people really buttressed the devastation that was expected from the pandemic. Also, the government took some timely decisions to avert the anticipated crisis. Even with all measures, the economic machinery came to a halt and the world GDP saw a negative growth so was Pakistan’s. Pandemic aside, little has been done in the country to harness the youth potential.
PIDE’s report laments the current situation of the labour force in the country. The female labour participation rate remains abysmal, yet females make 50 percent of Pakistan’s population. Despite the warnings from NHDR 2017, nothing substantial has been done to employ the bulging youth population. The most undervalued finding of the study is that high school education plays no role in serious gains in monthly earnings. As the country produces low quality graduates with high school education without any technical knowhow. Technical education must be made mandatory for all high school graduates and if anyone cannot continue higher education, he/she/they must have enough technical knowledge to start a small local business or work for a respective industry.
The NHDR 2017 mentions meaningful engagement as one of the key drivers of youth development, but sadly nothing substantial has been done to make it possible. The LSF study shows that one third of the youth in both urban and rural areas are disconnected from the system and the disconnect is higher for females with 60 percent of them not working. The regular types of deterrence have remained strong to thwart their participation: cultural norms, early marriages, and childbearing.
The PIDE report stamps the state’s inaction since the last NHDR report in 2017. As one of the youngest countries in terms of population, Pakistan can set her development course right if concerted investments are made in youth development and engagement. Youth-centric policies should be implemented in true spirit. The Kamyab Jawan programme was one of the initiatives of the sitting government. Graduates with proper business plans could avail the low to no interest rates loans to fund their businesses. Certain public and private institutions have also started internships programs to equip graduates with necessary professional skills, but these are only scratching the surface. Until and unless the government places its heart at the development of opportunities for the youth, the demographic dividend would turn into a demographic disaster. The best course for future development to learn from history and set things right moving forward by placing youth at the centre of development.