With each passing day, the post-election political landscape at the national level is becoming more and more predictable. Now, it is time to evolve a near consensus-based national manifesto that the post-election government should be able to pursue. Hopefully, the polls would be fair and credible, and the law and order situation would remain manageable during the electoral campaigns.
It is likely that around 60-70 percent of the outgoing parliamentarians would be able to make a comeback, thanks to their individual standing in respective constituencies. The party positions would alter, though not drastically. Hence, there would be continuity in the collective mindset and working culture of the upcoming Parliament.
It would, most likely, be another hung Parliament, resulting in a shaky coalition government. Keeping in view, the post 18th Amendment limits on the cabinet’s size, it would be difficult for the government to woo, glue and maintain the alliance.
To stay in power, the single majority party will have to walk a tight rope and make compromises. Therefore, any major reform may not be possible in a single package format. Yet, there would be ample political space to carryout incremental yet meaningful course corrections.
Manifestoes launched by various political parties promise a bright future and cover most of the areas of public interest. So they are quite similar in substance and only vary symbolically and rhetorically. Often, they resemble overblown advertisements of a mediocre brand.
Nevertheless, the common ground in the manifestoes provide adequate tactical spaces for a wide range of possibilities for the establishment of a coalition government by agreeing on minimum common agenda for reform, development and forward movement.
As said earlier, the political parties aspiring to lead the post-election government should evolve a near consensus-based national agenda, in the context of global, regional and domestic scenarios; it is a difficult, but not an impossible task.
The challenges facing Pakistan are: the war (on terror) fatigue, weak economy, disdainful law and order situation, poor governance and gross negligence in the areas of social security and low quality services. While the contributing factors are: the energy crisis, spill over effects of the occupation of Afghanistan, rampant financial corruption, dysfunctional lower judiciary and political appointments against professional slots.
Terrorism is a threat that has to be tackled in a prudent manner; focusing upon its causes and not merely its manifestations. It is, indeed, a political problem and there can be no military solution to it.
The so-called war on terror has exacted a huge toll on our nationhood, both in tangible and intangible ways. It has seriously eroded public confidence in the ruling classes. A large number of people think that their leadership is not making decisions on the basis of national interest.
Pakistan surely needs to extricate itself from this unfortunate situation through a consensus-based multidimensional strategy. It is a task easier said than done. The deterioration of law and order is directly related to our involvement in this futile and open-ended war.
Extremely bad governance, wrought with corruption and compromises, in the name of the continuity of democracy, have driven the country to an unenviable reputation. This has given rise to several crises having long-term implications like the erosion of our sovereignty, downslide in economic growth, unhealthy wrangling between state institutions and haziness in our identity as a nation. There is a need for robust governance reforms covering domains like rightsizing, transparency of information and merit-based recruitment.
There are serious public level apprehensions, some real some imaginary, about the role of intelligence agencies in civil, political and regional affairs. The detractors have been able to portray a sustained negative image of the armed forces in the context of Balochistan, especially on the issue of missing persons. Consequently, the trust deficit between the military and people has increased over the years.
Though the civil-military relationship has survived numerous jerks over the past five years, this does not mean that it does not require a structural review. Our higher defence organisation is based on a dated model; it certainly needs a major revamping or reworking.
Furthermore, the executive-judiciary tussle for turfs has occupied the centre stage of public focus since the Musharraf era. Judicial activism became necessary because of the executive’s failure to function within acceptable norms and traditions. This surely contributed towards strengthening the rule of law. Yet, most of the judiciary’s landmark decisions remained unimplemented. The executive outmanoeuvred judicial verdicts, especially the anti-climax of Swiss accounts case has not gone down well with the public.
Also, structural and other limitations of the lower judiciary continue to haunt the provision of speedy justice to the common man. There is a need to take a fresh look at the judicial structures and make it accessible, affordable and time bound.
Besides this, the global financial crisis is likely to continue for an indefinite period. Pakistan needs to build necessary firewalls to contain the impact. The broadening of tax base, transparency and meaningful austerity measures could provide some protection against the negative fallouts emanating out of the global crisis. Thus, it is important to reorient our economic strategy to benefit from the emerging economic giants like China, Japan, Brazil and Turkey. The volume of domestic and international debt has increased from Rs 6 trillion in 2008 to over Rs 15 trillion in 2012.
Debt servicing has become the largest consumer of national budget. There is need to cap the domestic and international borrowing commensurate with our debt servicing capacity. More so, the principles of fiscal responsibility have to be strengthened through structural economic reforms.
In addition, the energy crisis has virtually disrupted Pakistan’s economy and has adversely impacted the living conditions of the masses. As of today, ironically, the electricity generation capacity far exceeds the peak summer demand. The core issue is that the consumers cannot pay for the actual generation cost, while the government does not have the financial capacity to foot the cost of requisite subsidy. There is a need to look for ways and means for generating electricity through cheaper means.
The province-local government relationship is another sore area, which has effectively blocked the grassroots level devolution of democracy. It goes to the discredit of the national political leadership that no civilian government has ever conducted local bodies’ elections. Consequently, municipal services have degenerated over the years. Sustainable resurrection of this tier of democracy is long overdue.
Media freedom is essential for the promotion of free thinking and intellectual honesty. Unfortunately, the pendulum has swung to the other extreme - unlimited freedom. Our media has become excessively corporatised, whereby even core national interests take a second priority. An effective non-government media regulator is now a necessity.
As a final word, those who finally qualify to form the next government would essentially have to face daunting challenges. Obviously, their homework should be solid, precise and professional, churning out practicable and sustainable remedies to deal with these challenges.
The writer is an academic and a freelance columnist. Email: wonderous101@gmail.com Twitter: @wonderous101