Break-up for another make-up?

Departure of JUI-F from the ruling coalition has not only hinted at yet another political divorce likely during the days to come but also indicates that another marriage of convenience is in the offing. Political pundits have dubbed this development as a beginning of the end for the PPP-led ruling coalition that apparently was left in the lurch by one of coalition partners. But insiders believed that President Asif Ali Zardari has been playing his cards tactfully to realign his political alliances in a futuristic manner. Still it would not be that simple for President Zardari to get rid of two of the coalition partners namely the JUI-F and the MQM and lure PML-Q having much bigger parliamentary strength into the ruling alliance, well-placed political sources said. Although the MQM has taken a stern notice of Sindh Home Minister Zulfiquar Mirzas statement that had alleged their involvement in target killings in Karachi, parting ways with the ruling coalition was also not easy for them, the sources observed. According to the sources, the MQM was not in a position to leave the Government at the current juncture of time irrespective of their differences with the leading coalition partner. In case the MQM leaves the Government, the PPP might accept the demand of the ANP for an army operation in Karachi, the sources added. However, the PPP will have to divorce the MQM as well in case it wants to attract the PML-Q from the opposition benches to the treasury side. Some PPP insiders were of the view that Dr Mirza levelled allegations on all parties in Government in Sindh deliberately in order to provoke maximum reaction from chiefly the MQM. They were of the view that the PPP-led Government would treat the MQM in the same manner, as it did with JUI-F, to agitate them to the extent that they resort to leave the ruling coalition, as well. In the same direction the insiders believed that Law Minister Babar Awan wasted no time to contact PML-Q leader Chaudhry Shujat Hussain. Even in case the PML-Q fails to bring along eight to ten members forward bloc called the PML-Likeminded, it would still be adding over 40 members to the ruling coalitions total strength. Therefore, leaving both the MQM and the JUI-F would cost PPPs coalition Government only 30 or so members still far less than the strength of the PML-Q even minus Likeminded group in the National Assembly. In that case the passage of the General Sales Tax Bill 2010 would not be a problem for the Government. That is why perhaps, the sources said, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has given Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh a go ahead to apply for an extension in International Monetary Funds standby programme that expires on December 31. Imposition of RGST is one of the primary conditions of the IMF for releasing of any more funds under the standby loan and seeking an extension would means reaffirmation of Governments commitment to impose this levy. Therefore, the Prime Minister made this calculated move of sacking the JUI-F Minister knowing that the party would react in terms of quitting the Government. Interestingly, on the same day he chaired a high-level meeting that gave go ahead for applying an extension in the IMF programme meaning thereby no retreat on the RGST. So the passage of RGST in collaboration with the PML-Q, notwithstanding it decided to go against this tax, the Government would replicate the passage of a controversial women protection law in 2006. PPPs support to the then ruling party PML-Q was a big blow to the so-called combined opposition at that time in the Parliament during the last regime. The PPP got the power sharing deal with the former dictator General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf in the backdrops of the successful experiment of alliance on Women Protection Bill in 2006. And now what the PML-Q would get in joining the incumbent Government that late was a logical question ahead. Insiders believe that joining hands would be a win-win game for both the PPP and the PML-Q not only for rule in the Centre but the two are reportedly eyeing at Punjab Government as well. A PPP-PML-Q alliance could snatch the rule from PML-N in Punjab as apparent numbers in the Punjab Assembly suggest. Moreover, the PPPs success in luring PML-Q would also render the dream of PML unification as forlorn. Our Monitoring Desk adds: Following JUI-F ministers resignations, Federal Law Minister Babar Awan has become vibrant to save government. The Minister has contacted PML-Q leadership via phone and discussed political situation surfaced after a government ally JUI-F quit the coalition. The Law Minister phoned Ch Shujaat Hussain and Ch Pervaiz Elahi and discussed with them the overall political scenario of the country, a private TV channel reported Tuesday.