KARACHI - The oil consumption in the country posted a decent growth of 9 per cent as unveiled by the OCAC numbers for FY08. The total volume of the POL products (ex. non-energy) was recorded 18.7 million tons in FY08 against 17.1 million in FY07. Local refineries provided 9.60 million tons (51 percent of total) whereas remaining 49 percent of the consumption was met through imports (average 56 percent were imports for FO and HSD in FY08). The two White Oil products, Mogas and HSD, fueled volume (80 percent growth contribution) by recording 27 percent and 13 percent Year-on-Year growth, respectively. The combined volume of the two-recorded 9.54 million tons in FY08 (51 percent of total volume) against 8.30 million tons (49 percent of total) in FY07. During FY08, refueling demand amid reduced smuggling of Iranian products (especially Mogas as its demand stayed consistent at 25-32 percent range during most of FY08) and increased utilization (HSD) in transportation and household power generators due to acute electricity shortage. Therefore, HSD's demand also ranged consistently at 13-15 percent in 2nd Half of FY08 despite local price pass-on in 2nd Half of FY08. This led to White Oil products growth of 13 percent with 10.8 million tons. Other than HSD and MS, White Oil products - HOBC, JP-8, JP-1 and Kero - witnessed volume growth of only 2.7 percent Year-on-Year with 1.33 million tons. Black Oil (FO & LDO), conversely, posted a growth of 3.6 per cent with 7.81 million tons in FY08 against 7.54 million tons last year. In volumetric terms, Black Oil added 18 percent to the total volume increase in FY08 whereas HSD's and Mogas's contributions were 60 percent and 20 percent (80 percent combined). FO growth of 4pc came amid Wapda and other IPPs' rising demand due to reduced gas supplies during most of FY08 (slow growth amid around 100% steep rise in FO price in Jul-Jun08). During Jun-08, POL consumption posted growth of -0.92 percent Year-on-Year mainly because of Black Oil's negative growth of 9.9 percent (FO 9.5 percent and LDO 27.6 percent) while support came from White Oil which grew by 6.2 percent Year-on-Year - mainly driven by Mogas (8 percent), HSD (4 percent) and JP-1 and HOBC combined (125 percent Year-on-Year).   The rise in FO price (8 percent Month-on-Month at over Rs52k) and sharp decline in LDO consumption owing to rising prices and low agricultural activities amid late harvest led to a slight fall in Jun-08 POL consumption. The Government of Pakistan's price pass-on coupled with alternates (CNG/LPG) in Jun-08 impacted HSD and Mogas volumes declining by 7pc and 4pc Month-on-Month, respectively. Kero also resulted in negative growth of 10.6 percent due to price rise. Analyst said keeping current international oil price spree and Government of Pakistan's price pass-on reflecting in consumption numbers, its assumed volume growth forecast of 7-9% as 4-yr CAGR post FY08. The major driver would be FO whereas HSD and Mogas's growth is expected to decline gradually, going forward.