On Wednesday, 11th September, Afghan and Turkmenistan officials gathered at Islim Cheshma (Turkmenistan) to begin work on the Afghan section of the TAPI pipeline project. Taliban government spokesman Zabiullah announced at the ceremony, “From today, operations will start on Afghanistan’s soil.” This is indeed an auspicious development.
The groundbreaking ceremony for this trans-regional gas pipeline, which connects Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, was held on 13th December 2015. The project, billed as a game-changer for the region, was inaugurated by Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdimohamedow, and Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari near the city of Mary in Turkmenistan.
The leaders of the four nations rightly described the project as a win-win for all. They hoped that the commitment of the stakeholders, along with the steps proposed at the Heart of Asia Conference, would create favourable conditions in Afghanistan. This would not only facilitate the construction of the pipeline but also contribute to ending the conflict in the country—critical for the peace, security, and progress the region desperately needs, particularly in Afghanistan.
The project was conceived in 1995 by Western multinational oil companies working in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, after Russia refused to allow them access to its pipeline network. These companies required an independent export route that bypassed both Iran and Russia. The Asian Development Bank funded the project, and it was launched on 15th March 1995 when Pakistan and Turkmenistan signed the inaugural memorandum for the pipeline. In April 2008, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India signed a framework agreement to purchase natural gas from Turkmenistan.
The 1,814 km pipeline was scheduled to become operational by 2019. It is designed to carry 27 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, with a potential capacity of up to 33 billion cubic meters. The project aims to supply Pakistan with 1,325 mmcfd of gas per day. The pipeline, estimated to cost USD 10 billion, will pass through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan, then through Balochistan and Multan before entering India’s Punjab. Issues concerning transit fees payable to Afghanistan by Pakistan and India, as well as fees payable by India to Pakistan, have already been resolved. TAPI is more than just a transit initiative connecting energy-rich Central Asia with energy-starved South Asia; it is a flagship project that promises to transform the lives of nearly 1.5 billion people. It symbolises shared prosperity and socio-economic development.
Unfortunately, this venture has long been held hostage to the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been a staunch advocate for regional connectivity, and this project is crucial in this regard. Its completion would foster economic interdependence among Central and South Asian states, particularly the pipeline’s beneficiaries. This could eventually lead to political integration and the resolution of long-standing disputes in the region.
Pakistan is currently facing a debilitating energy crisis that has severely affected the industrial sector and caused significant inconvenience to millions of households. The energy shortage also threatens substantial investments in the CNG sector. Therefore, the implementation of the TAPI pipeline is critical for Pakistan to reverse these trends. The energy crisis in Pakistan is the result of successive governments’ failure to initiate new power projects to meet growing electricity demand, leading to a significant gap between supply and demand. The most substantial initiative to address this crisis was launched under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), prioritising early harvest projects to produce 10,600 MW of electricity. Plans are also in place to generate an additional 14,000 MW after these projects are completed. During 2013-2018, nearly 12,000 MW was added to the system, yet the demand for energy continues to grow, keeping the situation dire. Given this context, trans-regional projects like TAPI offer a long-term solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis, especially as the completion of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline remains elusive due to US sanctions. With the Taliban government now taking steps to build the Afghan section of the TAPI pipeline, there is renewed hope for the project’s completion. Pakistan and Afghanistan have much to gain from this project, and despite differences on other issues, both countries should cooperate to ensure its success. The Pakistan government should engage in dialogue with the Taliban to expedite the construction of the pipeline on Pakistani soil.
It is also vital that the Taliban government recognises the importance of this project and shows willingness to cooperate. Simultaneously, Pakistan should initiate talks with the US to seek a waiver on sanctions against Iran, allowing progress on the IP pipeline, another crucial project for Pakistan. Completing the IP pipeline would not only provide an additional energy source but also prevent a potential USD 18 billion penalty Iran could seek for Pakistan’s failure to complete its section of the pipeline.
Malik Muhammad Ashraf
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at ashpak10@gmail.com.