Stability in Afghanistan

Prof. Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan The situation in Afghanistan is very complex. It is a fact that as long as the US and its allied forces are in Afghanistan, peace cannot be achieved in the war-torn country and the region. In the present context, it seems that the Americans do not have an appropriate peace plan for Afghanistan. If they leave immediately, it will create chaos in Afghanistan, and if they stay on it may prolong the insurgency. Needless to say, the Americans have made a big mistake by attacking Afghanistan. The current objective of the US is to pass on the security responsibilities to the Afghan security forces by 2014, owing to the tremendous economic burden of the war costing it billions of dollars a month. It seems that Washington is adopting a strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan that has shifted the borders of the tribal areas from the Pentagon to CIA and thus we might see more drone attacks in these areas of our country. General John Allen has taken over the command of the Western forces in Afghanistan replacing General David Petraeus. General Allen admitted that the international military campaign faced tough days ahead, but said that he wanted to maintain the momentum of the campaign, which is very much difficult owing to the ground realities and depleting economy and war expenditure of US in Afghanistan. While officials in Washington have trumpeted their success in reclaiming the Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, and training the Afghan security forces, as signs of progress, yet violent attacks have continued that clearly indicate that 'the job is not even half done. Surely, the best case scenario is a negotiated agreement where the Taliban can enter the mainstream Afghan politics; while the worst case is more thorough, "Vietnam style" approach, as quoted by Giles Dorronsoro. In both the cases, the situation would remain complex and fragile. Moreover, the Afghan conflict cannot end without Pakistans cooperation because the US is dependent on it for much of its needs. More importantly, Afghanistan is a big market for Pakistan and the bilateral trade between the two countries is pretty large and going up. Fortunately, the relationship between the two countries is rapidly improving. The Afghans are now realising that they had a very good time in Pakistan. About four million Afghans lived in our country for almost 30 years. Undoubtedly, Pakistan has contributed a lot to the cause and welfare of the Afghan people. However, more steps need to be taken to enhance the Pak-Afghan relations. Despite all the support, unfortunately, anti-Pakistan sentiments are seen in Afghanistan, particularly among the non-Pashtun population. But the Pashtuns, which comprise more than 60 percent of the total Afghan population, are pro-Pakistan. The non-Pashtuns carry a negative sentiment against Pakistan because they think that it facilitated the Taliban to fight against them, which is not true. The Taliban came under their own circumstances following their own agenda. Apparently, the anti-Pakistan sentiments are dying out gradually, and Afghanistan has and will always look towards Pakistan for its trade and development. We, too, must help them out to bring long-term peace and stability in the region. The long-term solution for peace in Afghanistan rests in a regional approach. This will, indeed, eliminate the root cause of terrorism and extremism in the region and bring development in these countries. The writer is the vice chancellor of the University of Peshawar.

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