Market to move with care and fear

The Pakistani stock market closed on Friday the last     day of the trading week (June 09-13, 2008) under     review at 12942 points with an increase of 34 points     with reference to the closing of the market at 12908     points on June 09, 2008, the first day of the trading week under review. The share market on Friday, the last day of the trading week under review failed to extend the post-budget rally as despite renewed support on selected counters broader market stayed weak in the absence of strong demand from any quarter, including the financial institutions. A steep decline in the turnover figure to slightly above the 100m share market and fractional price changes indicate that investors are not inclined to take even a calculated risks at this stage after a clear picture emerges on the political front, notably on the judges issue, some analysts said. The 100-share index managed to finish well above the session's low of 12,895.39 points at 12,941.56; off 84.08 points as leading shares in the oil, banking and cement sectors maintained their upward drive under the lead of MCB Bank, D.G. Khan Cement, and Pakistan Petroleum. But there was no sign of support linked to relief in the new budget as investors were worried over fresh political developments in the backdrop of NATO forces attacks from across the border in the tribal areas. "What worried investors more were the reports from the US sources that such attacks killing innocent persons will continue in future, too, despite Pakistan's strong protest," analysts said. The market remained in the tight grip of conflicting rumors coming in quick succession about the outcome of lawyers' long march on Islamabad and the Presidency and id not help the investors to follow a set course dictated by the budget. "The perception that the budget will lure investors back in the arena failed to guide the stock market trend as investors were not inclined to make fresh commitments in an uncertain political outlook," said a leading broker. Minus signs again dominated the list under the lead of Nistle Pakistan and Dawood Hercules, off Rs40 and Rs14, followed by National Bank, National Refinery, Sanofi-Aventis, Atlas Battery, ICI Pakistan, Unilever Pakistan, Pak-Suzuki Motors, and Indus Motors, which were market down by Rs4.50 to Rs14. HinoPak Motors and Ferozsons Lab were leading among the gainers, up by Rs20 and Rs9. They were followed by Fazal Textiles, MCB Bank, Abbott Lab, Searle Pakistan, Service Industries, and Clover Pakistan, which posted gains ranging from Rs4 to Rs7. Trading volume fell to 104m shares, far below a single session tally in a liquid share, as losers again held a fair lead over the gainers at 156 to 120, with 31 shares holding on to the last levels. Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim topped the list of actives, firm by 26 paisa at Rs37.95 on 8m shares followed by Adamjee Insurance, up Rs1.25 at Rs271.25 on 6m shares, D.G. Khan Cement, steady by Rs1.15 at Rs74.40 on 5m shares, Bank of Punjab, up by 35 paisa at Rs36 on 4m shares, Pakistan Petroleum, higher by Rs3 at Rs269 on 4m shares, MCB Bank, higher by Rs6.53 on 3m shares and Nishat Mills, off Rs2 at Rs98 also on 3m shares. Other actives were led by Azgard Nine, up Rs1.94 at Rs66 on 6m shares, followed by Pace Pakistan, firm by 80 paisa at Rs32 on 4m shares, and NIB Bank, lower by 13 paisa at Rs13 on 3m shares. Stocks on Monday, the second day of the trading week under review resumed trading on a higher note on active follow-up support but failed to sustain the early run-up on near-panic selling triggered by fears of violence linked to lawyers long march on Tuesday after government's failure to restore the superior judiciary within their deadline and renewed political tensions. After opening 87 points higher the 100-share index plunged by 226.33 points or 1.72 per cent at 12,908.23 as compared to 13,134.56 at the last weekend, wiping out Rs67 billion from the market capital at 3,980.00 billion on hasty selling. But the free-float 30-share index received a massive battering off 419.23 points or 2.71 per cent at 15,030.33. Most of the leading shares, including heavy weights such as MCB Bank, National Bank, Pakistan Petroleum, Attock Refinery reacted sharply lower from their recent highs, some of them even facing lower locks. The ongoing reversal was largely attributed to developing political scenario but as far as the news from the budget is concerned they are postal gains tax for another two years, Analyst Ch Anwarul Haq said. "The renewed political tension followed by conflicting statements by the leaders about the status of the presidency was also a bearish market factor leading to political uncertainties," Ch said. But what seems to have aggravated the political tension was president's talk to some senior journalists and his veiled threat to react if his powers were curtailed by the parliament, he said. Budget uncertainties are there in the backdrop of tax relief and new corporate taxes but reported Saudi assurance to the prime minister in a recent meeting to supply oil on deferred payments will certainly relieve pressure on the fiscal measures on some counters, Gulfam Ahmad Khan Sherwani hopes. Although minus signs dominated the list some of the shares managed to finish sharply higher under the lead of AKD Capital and EFU General Insurance, up by Rs56.69 and Rs17.86, respectively. Other leading gainers were led by Mitchells Farms, Shell Gas, Zulfiqar Industries, EFU Life, and Fazal Textiles, up by Rs6.42 to Rs14. Some others rose modestly. Siemens Pakistan and Unilever Pakistan fell by Rs78 and Rs60, respectively, followed by National Bank, ICI Pakistan, Tri-Pack Films, Packages, Sanofi-Aventis, Dawood Hercules, Attock Refinery, Adamjee Insurance, MCB Bank and JS & Co, which fell by Rs8.54 to Rs28.95. Trading volume fell to a modest proportion to 122m shares as leading players kept to the sidelines awaiting the outcome of long march. Losers held a strong lead over the gainers at 215 to 81, with 26 shares holding on to the last levels. D.G. Khan Cement topped the list of actives, off Rs3.98 at Rs75.82 on 9m shares followed by Nishat Mills, easy by 10 paisa at Rs100.50 also on 9m shares, Arif Habib Securities, off Rs4.40 at Rs169.80on 7m shares, Pakistan Petroleum, lower by Rs1.54 at Rs265.96 on 4m shares, Attock Refinery, sharply lower by Rs13.82 at Rs262.68 on 3m shares and WorldCall Telecom, lower by 44 paisa at Rs15.49 on 5m shares. Other actives were led by Invest Mutual Fund, steady by six paisa at Rs2.86 on 4m shares, Sitara Peroxide, firm by 16 paisa at Rs56.16 on 4m shares, and NIB Bank, lower by 60 paisa at Rs12.90 on 3m shares. The market on Tuesday ,the second day of the trading week under review remained unsettled amid conflicting rumors about fiscal steps in the budget and political tensions but managed to finish well above the session's lows on late flurry of buy-stops at the dips on selected counters. The session's volatility may be gauged by the highly erratic movement of the  100-share index, which at one stage having fallen by 285 points managed to recoup a good partly of them on strong support at the dips, analysts said. The lawyers' long march was also viewed as a negative factor amid fears of law and order situation. It finally ended with a clipped loss of 30.19 points at 12,878.04 after having fallen to session's low of 12,687.40 points. The free-float 30-share index on the other hand, managed to close with a fractional gain of 5.41 points at 15,035.74. Late strong buying at the lower level in the leading banking shares, notably MCB Bank, and National Bank and some oil shares, including OGDC, and Pakistan Petroleum, significantly added to the recovery in it from the mid-session lows. The general perception was that investors might have some rethinking on the economic projections for the new fiscal year and their impact on the share market, notably a fall in the growth rate to 5.5 per cent, high rate of inflation at 11 per cent and massive rise in trade deficit, but some other positive points may keep the market afloat, said a leading analyst. "But investors are certainly gone mad for the last couple of weeks," said a small investor, commenting on the 'Taaq' (odd) closing rates of most of the shares, adding "Do they want us to remain busy calculating Taaq, such as 0.01, 0.41, 0.07 paisa, or closing of Rs12.91, Rs111.39 plus and minus of the day like school-children, pity on them." Never in the history of the stock trading, there had ever been a terrible galore of Taaq closing rates, he said, adding: "I fear computer network might also refuse to take in that data one day." Where has gone the normal "juft" closing rates of Rs12.50, Rs13, Rs70.80. "Having two years exemption on Capital Gains Tax and statue quo on the Capital Value and withholding taxes, investors have nothing to worry about the fiscal measures in tomorrow's national budget," analyst said, adding "there may be some other supporting steps for the share business as the new managers are not inclined to disturb the present status quo on the bourses." But no one could deny the investor worries about the political tensions, which did not allow investors to play freely in a market still having a potential to hit new highs. Although most of the leading shares managed to finish fully recovered under the lead of Siemens Pakistan and EFU General Insurance, up by Rs66 and 14.10. They were followed by MCB Bank, National Bank, Dawood Lawrence, Mari Gas, Sanofi-Aventis, Packages, Noon Pakistan, Dawood Hercules, Shell Gas and EFU General, which posted gains, ranging from Rs5.75 to Rs14.10. Broader market on the other hand stayed weak under the lead of AKD capital and Nestle Pakistan, off by Rs62 and Rs45, respectively. Other prominent losers included Sapphire Fibres, JS Gold, Adamjee Insurance, EFU Life, Thal, Attock Petroleum, PSO, National Foods, and Unilever Pakistan, off by Rs10 to Rs41. Trading volume showed modest rise at 145m shares from the previous 122m shares, losers held a fair lead over gainers at 169 to 116, with 16 shares holding on to the last levels. D G Khan topped the list of actives, lower by Rs1.57 at Rs74.25 on 12m shares followed by Arif Habib Securities, easy by 10 paisa at Rs169.70 on 8m shares, Bank Al-Falah, lower 75 paisa at Rs45.76 also on 8m shares, MCB Bank, higher by Rs6.77 at Rs297 on 7m shares, Lucky Cement, higher by Rs2.89 at Rs111.39 on 5m shares, National Bank, sharply higher by Rs5.75 at Rs172 on 4m shares and OGDC, steady by 10 paisa at Rs132 also on 4m shares. Other actives were led by Bank of Punjab, off Rs1.76 at Rs32.35 on 7m shares, World Call Telecom; lower by 23 paisa at Rs15.26 on 5m shares and NIB Bank, fractionally higher at Rs12.91 on 7m shares. Stocks staged a snap pre-budget rally on Wednesday, the third day of the trading week under review on active short-covering triggered apparently by some 'fiscal leaks' about the corporate taxes and relief to some prominent sectors of the economy, ignoring the weak data in the Economic Survey. The 100-share index recovered 138.34 points or 1.07 per cent and was quoted well above the barrier of 13,000 points at 13,016.38, amid heavy speculative buying in the banking, oil and fertilizer sectors, billed as the chief beneficiaries of the tax relief. The free float 30-share index on the other hand recovered 210.41 points at 15,246.15 or 1.40 per cent as leading index shares came in for active support at the current lows. Heavy buying in MCB Bank, National Bank, and some other leading shares indicates that a section of foreign investors is also in the market and for good reasons too as the current lower levels promise higher capital gains in the post-budget sessions, analyst Ch Anwarul Haq said. "Investors had already two-year exemption on capital gains tax and an expected status quo on the Capital Value Tax and Withholding Tax in the new finance bill generated a good bit of speculative buying on those counters," Ch  said. He said pre-budget rally is generally sustained in the post-budget sessions as it is based on some positive leaks and indications are that despite political irritants the trading on the market could be smooth in the coming sessions also. Leading gainers were led by Colgate Pakistan and Packages, up by Rs23 and Rs12.61. Other good gainers, included Arif Habib Ltd, JS & Co, MCB Bank, National Bank, Shell Pakistan, Pakistan Oilfields, Ferozsons Lab, Glaxo-Wellcom, and Sanofi-Aventis, which posted gains ranging from Rs5 to Rs8.90. EFU Life and Adamjee Insurance fell by Rs16.50 and Rs13.76, respectively, on renewed selling amid rumours of fresh taxes followed by Attock Petroleum, New Jubilee Insurance, Attock Refinery, Insurance, Attock Refinery, Pakistan Refinery, Indus Motors, Sitara Chemical and Clover Pakistan, off by Rs5 to Rs11.45. Trading volume fell to 131m shares from the previous 145m shares but gainers forced a strong lead over the losers at 197 to 103, with 23 shares holding on to the last levels. The actively traded shares were led by D.G. Khan Cement steady by 36 paisa at Rs74.61 on 10m shares, Arif Habib Securities, higher by Rs4.10 at Rs173.80 on 7m shares, Bank AlFalah, up by Rs2.27 at Rs48.03 also on 7m shares, National Bank, higher by Rs7.55 at Rs179.55 on 6m shares, Arif Habib Bank, firm by one rupee at Rs21.17 on 5m shares Nishat Mills, up Rs2 at Rs101.99 on 4m shares and MCB Bank, sharply higher by Rs8.90 at Rs305.90 on 4m shares. Other actives were led by NIB Bank, up 49 paisa at Rs13.40 on 6m shares, Lucky Cement, firm by one paisa at Rs111.40 on 4m shares and Pakistan Reinsurance Co, higher by Rs2.85 at Rs100.35 also on 4m shares. The post-budget session of the share market on Thursday, the second last day of the trading week under review opened on higher note as investors welcomed the fiscal relief but the initial buying euphoria could not be sustained owing to late profit-selling triggered by some pressing political irritants. The chief beneficiaries of the fiscal relief, notably oil, banking and fertilizer sector remained in strong demand as some of blue chips among them were subjected to upper locks, floor brokers said. The market's positive reaction to the new budget was, however, well-reflected in the early run-up of the 100-share index, which shot up by 157 points to quote at the session's high of 13,163.45. But it failed to sustain it on selling triggered by fears of violence owing to lawyers' long march when it arrives in Islamabad. It was finally ended with a modest rise of 9.26 points at 13,025.64 as some leading base shares came in for selling under the lead of National Bank. The early run-up was attributed to sharp rise in some of the leading base shares led by MCB Bank, which was quoted higher by Rs4.07 at Rs309.97. "The budget literally meets all the demands of investors and brokers, including tax exemption on capital gains tax for another two years, status quo on other corporate taxes such as capital value tax but now the only worry of the market was said to be political tensions," analyst Ch Anwar believes. He said the market had already absorbed a good part of the corporate tax relief in the pre-budget sessions after having pushed the index above the barrier of 13,000 points. The investors well be back in the market after having full view of the fiscal measures and their likely negative or positive sympathetic impact on the share market, he added. Among the top gainers Bata Pakistan and Attock Petroleum were leading, up by Rs24.25 and Rs22.20, followed by Adamjee insurance, Pakistan Refinery, National Refinery, Attock Refinery, PSO, Shell Gas, Dawood Hercules, Packages and HinoPak, which posted gains ranging from Rs7.43 to Rs18.99. Exide Pakistan and EFU General Insurance were among the prominent losers, which fell by Rs8.70 and Rs8.50. Other fell modestly barring Noon Pakistan, Mitchell's Farms and Gillette Pakistan, off by Rs5.10 to Rs7.45. Trading volume was light at 128m shares as leading investors were still in the process of analyzing the taxation proposals as losers held a modest lead over the gainers at 162 to 135, with 34 shares holding on to the last levels. Bank of Punjab led the list of actively traded shares, higher by Rs1.69 at Rs35.65 on 7m shares, followed by Fauji Fertiliser, one of the beneficiaries of budgetary relief along with banks and oil sectors, higher by Rs1.79 at Rs37.69 on 6m shares, Arif Habib Securities, lower by Rs1.11 at Rs172.69 also on 6m shares, Nishat Mills, off Rs1.49 at Rs100.50 on 5m shares, Engro Chemical, higher by Rs3.90 at Rs302 also on 5m shares, National Bank, lower by Rs2.05 at Rs177.50 also on 5m shares and OGDC, easy by five paisa at Rs309.97 on 4m shares. Other actives included NIB Bank, lower by 27 paisa at Rs13.13 on 5m shares, and Pak PTA, easy by 25 paisa at Rs4.80 on 4m shares.

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