Because of the huge strategic significance of the Sub-Continent, conflict between the two nuclear powers that are the biggest countries in the region makes it a concern of an utmost importance for the international community.

Already a fresh power struggle has taken place all over the southern and central parts of Asia, with new alignments and arrangements, along with renewed ambitions that is often regarded as “Greater Great Game” in the current political discourse.

There is quite a considerable consensus, with historical evidence in political philosophy, how civilizations like an individual seek to achieve maximum glory at the cost of others right to existence.

Civilizations have imperial designs and ambitions for which they strive to attain the glory. A similar scenario is appealing to the Hindus living in India. A dream dates back to more than couple of millenniums now seems quite achievable with the growth of India’s economy as the sixth biggest in the world. The business giants of India have started to enter the panorama of global corporate elite.

By the same token, the defence budget of India has risen to $53.5 billion. Following the centuries old domination by different foreign rulers, the glorious ambitions of one of the oldest civilization of human history, are on the road to its imperialist designs.

The political, economic and defence projection of India has direct and foremost consequences for Pakistan. Primarily, the strategic and military build-up of India poses two major national security challenges to Pakistan, in spite of the official Indian policy of ‘Strategic Restraint’.

Over the last half decade and so, a major policy shift from Nehru’s non-aligned India to Modi’s aligned-India is a paramount breakthrough in this regard. A strong US-Indo nexus has unfolded a new provocative chessboard in the region. US’s attempt to establish India as a regional hegemon is bringing perplexing consequences for regional stability. Besides the containment of China, Afghanistan being the standpoint, it would also serve in the encirclement of Russia.

The recent Indian moves to access the Middle Eastern markets and attempts to drag hurdles in the way of Pakistan’s human resource there, is another source of isolating Pakistan at economic level. Moreover, increasing India’s role in Afghanistan, although it has been operating there for quite a while, would further convolute the Afghan political picture against Pakistan and its interests.

Pakistan has legitimate interests in Afghanistan. There are plenty of evidences of Indian intrusion in Pakistan through terrorist groups from Afghan soil. India is using Afghanistan as a command and control centre to press Pakistan over the western frontier. Groups proclaiming affiliation with ISIL and other radical factions have been endeavouring to hold positions across Pak-Afghan border.

These groups, in accordance to the official position of Pakistan, are mostly operating with the support of RAW and NDS. These terrorist outfits along with the Indian friendly Northern Alliance regime, which has always been at loggerheads with Pakistan, have put constant pressure over Pakistan, while successfully accusing them of supporting Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network, that, according to Afghan official version, are the core reasons for their failure in establishing their stable, firm and meaningful control in Afghanistan, which is necessary for its governance.

Furthermore, the scope of the Indian Ocean has immensely increased with the revival of the old trade links across the coastal areas of Red Sea together with the U.S. policy of strategic pivot to Asia, there are paramount prospects, in times to come, for an overwhelming economic fiesta to stand against the Chinese designs of one belt and one road. Notwithstanding, the ferocious momentum in the freedom movement throughout Indian Occupied Kashmir and up to significant extent in Indian Punjab, might ignite a decentralized intra-state war inside India.

Nevertheless, the full swing rise of radical Hindutva with a populist theocratic government in power has further suppressed the already oppressed minorities in India. So there is a great concern in Indian think tanks with respect to these movements, which is quite obvious from the tremendous amount of resentment within the marginalized castes and minority groups.

From the recent wave of persecution being carried out by fascists Hindus, in case if a hostile agitation escalated, as we have witnessed in Arab Spring and in the recent rise of nationalism in the western world how political movements rapidly spread across communities and regions, then there is a bright possibility of an antagonistic wave of anti-state and secessionist struggle in India.

For Pakistan, nonetheless, immediate threat assessment must be drawn through the possibility of a much discussed and predictable one step further utilization of already well-placed mechanisms of fourth and fifth generation warfare. This includes the collapse or lack of governance and shrinking of economy, together with the lowest possible goal of engaging Pakistan through a lethal guerrilla sub-conventional war along the Afghan frontier, not to mention the high probability of a major conventional conflict, since that generally happens once a war starts.

On top of everything, in the days to come, two things are for sure, and through the historical and philosophical lens can be stated with absolute certainty that a Indo-Pak war is inevitable, while its first phase will be an intense and deadly proxy war with a political power struggle over the Afghan land from Durand line up till the banks of Oxus.