Eleven years, after the commencement of a war in Afghanistan, we are very much in the eye of the storm, experiencing worst form of insurgency and terrorism, since secession of East Pakistan. The elements, we have nurtured and tolerated for decades, have turned into a monster, threatening the very security and integrity of our country. Like it or not, we have lost FATA to insurgency, where a new generation of warlords and political entrepreneurs, are running their criminal enterprises, planing and executing terrorist attack across Pakistan.
To counter, insurgents and their affiliates, we have to move, beyond peace talks and military operations, to a whole set of counterinsurgency measures, aimed at winning over the local population, by cleansing FATA of miscreants, and rebuilding administrative structure that can fight crime and militancy, on long-term basis.
Sir Winston Churchill once said, "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." Many of us advocate negotiations, as the only way to end terrorism and insurgency, without realizing that even if we buy an easy peace, who will face the militants' wrath, once foreign forces have withdrawn from Afghanistan ?
During last twelve years, we undertook numerous peace initiatives, giving legitimacy and space to militants, without gaining any significant strategic advantage. Sarargorah, Shakai and Malakand accords are examples of agreements that failed, because peace impedes the designs and ambitions of insurgents.
Relying solely, on military operation will not produce the desired results either, as US think tank RAND stated, in one of its reports, "Pakistan’s operations against militants have been deeply affected by the capabilities and political will of its national security agencies that at times, struggled to clear and hold territory, as well as to secure local support in FATA."
What we need to deflate insurgency, is to deprive it, from the element inflating it. Great Chinese Leader, Mao Zedong said that relationship between insurgents and host population is like fish in water. As fish cannot live without water, similarly, insurgents cannot thrive without the sympathy and support of local population.
Therefore, our counterinsurgency measures should be population centric. As a first step, we need to eliminate and flush out militants, through a military operation. Secondly, we need to improve our policing capability in the region. According to an American study, "How terrorist groups end", police and intelligence operations are the most effective instrument, in putting an end to militancy, on long term basis.
Military operations lose their efficacy, owing to their lack of holding capacity. Once army moves out, insurgents refill the vacuum. A well trained, well equipped, and well motivated police force can hold the territory, and act as a bulwark against militant influx.
Presence of such a force, will give locals a sense of protection, encouraging them to cooperate in counterinsurgency operations. As US COIN manual states, "Progress in building support for the government requires protecting the local populace. People who do not believe they are secure from insurgent, will not risk overtly supporting [counterinsurgency] efforts."
Good administration, is another essential, for a successful counterinsurgency operation. According to American political scientists, Michael Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, all successful cases of counter insurgency included the “provision of temporary security, the building of new institutions capable of resolving future conflicts peaceably, and an economy capable of offering civilian employment."
In addition, we have to convince Americans to stop or decrease the use of drones in tribal agencies , which may be doing some damage to the terrorists, but over all, they are just feeding the insurgency, and is disadvantageous to the peace prospects.
It has been a decade, since insurgents started bleeding us. Peace talks and APCs are merely a distraction. Instead, we should embark on a campaign, to drive out insurgents from their hideouts, denying them a chance to regroup through policing and intelligence operations, and developing a support base amongst the locals, against anti-state elements, and improve Local administration in FATA.
In other words, it's time to integrate FATA, politically, economically and administratively, into the national mainstream. Only such comprehensive and multi-pronged approach, will help us, rid the scourge of insurgency and terrorism.
The writer is a freelance columnist and has worked as a broadcast journalist.