In a bid to leverage its geographic advantages, Pakistan has recently shifted its focus from politics to the economy. The country now believes that the idea of geo-politics must yield to geo-economics.
In 2009, the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act expressed the United States’ commitment to providing non-military aid to Pakistan, amounting to $1.5 billion per year from 2010 to 2014. However, in August 2017, the US administration decided to withhold $255 million in military assistance until Pakistan took action against terrorist groups. By January 2018, former US President Donald Trump lamented the $33 billion spent in aid since 2002, claiming it yielded nothing but lies and deceit. By early 2019, Pakistan had fully realised that the era of free-flowing US dollars was over.
In July 2015, Pakistan, acting as a mediator, had to abruptly postpone the second round of the intra-Afghan dialogue in Bhurban, Murree, known as the Murree Peace Process. This dialogue was to be attended by representatives from the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban, with a Chinese delegation also willing to participate. However, the conference was cancelled when it was revealed that Pakistan’s intelligence agencies were unaware of the death of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Umar, who had died two years earlier in April 2013. This revelation not only embarrassed Pakistan but also damaged its credibility as a reliable mediator in Afghan affairs.
From 2018 to 2021, Pakistan witnessed its marginalisation from the US’s South Asian foreign policy, particularly regarding Afghanistan. Neither the US nor the Afghan Taliban allowed Pakistan to attend meetings, and its exclusion from the Doha peace talks in Qatar was a clear indication of Pakistan’s diminishing influence. The Doha Peace Accord, signed by the US and Afghan Taliban in February 2020, confirmed Pakistan’s omission. The trust deficit between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban had been growing since 2002, when Pakistan handed over Afghanistan’s Ambassador Mullah Abdul Saleem Zaeef to US forces, who detained him in Guantanamo Bay until 2005. Pakistan has struggled to regain the Taliban’s trust ever since.
After mid-2021, when US and allied forces vacated Afghanistan, Pakistan’s attempt to project goodwill by sharing a picture of Pakistani intelligence officials in Kabul was both delusional and misleading. The Afghan Taliban quickly showed their true colours by turning a blind eye to the activities of their associates, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), leaving Pakistan in a state of disbelief.
The US forces, harbouring resentment towards Pakistan for its reluctant cooperation, did not spare Pakistan either. While departing from Afghanistan, they destroyed heavy weaponry but left behind light arms, which fell into the hands of the victorious Afghan Taliban. These weapons were shared with the TTP and Baloch insurgents, further strengthening Pakistan’s adversaries. Now, Pakistan is struggling to defend itself against suicide attacks by both the TTP and Baloch insurgents. Protecting Chinese engineers from these threats in the northwest and southwest has become increasingly difficult.
As if these challenges were not enough, while Pakistan was preoccupied with changes along its western border, its eastern neighbour seized the opportunity. In August 2019, India revoked the special status granted under Article 370 of its Constitution to the State of Jammu and Kashmir, reorganising the state to suit its needs. Pakistan was caught off guard by this development, leaving its stance on Kashmir weakened and uncertain. Having already exhausted its regional conflict options after the botched Kargil War of 1999, Pakistan quickly excluded war as a viable means to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan’s last hope rested with India’s Supreme Court, but in December 2023, a five-member bench unanimously upheld the Indian Government’s decision to abrogate Article 370, declaring it a temporary provision subject to revocation by the Indian President.
Today, Pakistan is reeling under the combined burden of economic insufficiency and political instability. Thoughts of incursion into neighbouring territories are no longer entertained. The focus is now inward, with Pakistan grappling to service its debt and avoid sovereign default on external payments.
The urgency to address economic inadequacy became evident in 2021, prompting Pakistan to declare a shift from geo-politics to geo-economics. However, this shift came too late. A significant portion of the educated skilled class has already left Pakistan, and many others are on their way out. The bond with the country has weakened. Meanwhile, analysts’ long-standing emphasis on the benefits of Pakistan’s geographical location has made the provinces increasingly aware of their natural resources and destinies, thereby weakening the concept of federation in Pakistan. The ongoing unrest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan is a testament to the prevailing disquiet.
Currently, Pakistan stands isolated in the region and is frail internally. Perhaps foreign policy challenges have become secondary to the growing internal crises. The path to recovery is both long and arduous.
Dr Qaisar Rashid
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com