Much at stake for PPP, PML-Q alliance

LAHORE - The PPP will have to sacrifice at least 29 of its 2008 election candidates while the PML-Q will have to say good bye to 50 to meet the requirements of their cooperation agreement and keep the alliance intact. If the two parties contest the next election together and put up their candidates according to the formula agreed upon, they will win 29 more NA seats defeating their PML-N rivals, provided the voting trends of last elections continue to prevail. While PPP and PML-Q are going to benefit largely from the seat adjustment formula, the new arrangement poses a serious challenge to PML-N in its stronghold - Punjab. Going by the details of agreement as disclosed by PML-Qs Parliamentary Leader Faisal Saleh Hayat in an interview with a national daily, the two parties have agreed not to field candidates against each other in constituencies where other partys candidates had won 2008 elections or where they were runner-up against PML-N candidates. After a detailed study of the last election results pertaining to National Assembly seats in Punjab, it has been found that there are 139 such constituencies where the candidates belonging to PPP and PML-Q had either won those seats or ended up as runners-up against PML-N candidates. As per details, PML-Q had won 27 national seats in 2008 general elections, while 35 of its candidates stood second in the election contests. If the said agreement is adhered to in the coming elections, PPP will have to refuse tickets to 62 of its potential candidates in constituencies where PML-Q candidates were either winner or runner-up in the last elections. The PPP won 48 national seats from Punjab while 29 of its candidates secured second position. In this way, PML-Q will not field its candidates on 77 national seats in Punjab against PPP candidates. As a result of these massive seat adjustments on 139 national assembly seats, only nine constituencies will be left open for the two parties where their candidates will be facing each other. The study further reveals that out of these 139 seats where seat adjustments will be made, PML-Q will have to sacrifice at least 50 potential candidates, while PPP will face similar problem in respect of 29 party men in various constituencies. A break-up of the above figures shows that in 27 national constituencies won by PML-Q in the previous elections, PPP will have to sacrifice at least 17 potential candidates, while in 35 constituencies, where PML-Q candidates stood second, it will have problems in 12 constituencies where its candidates performed better in the last election and have influence in their area. But apart from the problems the two parties will face in refusing tickets to their potential candidates in various districts, they will be in a position to grab at least 29 national seats from PML-N which got 63 national seats from Punjab in the last election. Here is a brief account of these 29 constituencies and prominent PPP leaders who may be refused tickets as a result of the seat adjustment with PML-Q. NA-104 Gujrat-I, Nawabzada Ghazanfar Ali Gul who got 63,374 votes in 2008 elections, but lost to Chaudhary Wajahat Hussain of PML-Q. Wajahat got 96,379 votes. NA-88 Jhang-III, Syeda Abida Hussain who secured 56,892 votes as against 72,162 of Faisal Saleh Hayat of PML-Q. Faisal has, however, volunteered not to press the PPP leadership to withdraw its candidate in his favour. NA-87 Jhang-II, Syeda Sughra Imam who obtained 55,621 votes but was defeated by Ms Ghulam Bibi Bharwana of PMLQ who got 63,515 votes. NA-156 Khanewal-I, Syed Fakhar Imam who stood second securing 58,271 votes against Muhammad Raza Hayat Hiraj of PML-Q who got 71,381 votes. NA-157 Khanewal-II, Syed Faisal Imam (19,756 votes) who lost to Hamid Yar Hiraj of PML-Q (58,819 votes). NA-158 Khanewal-III, Pir Haider Zaman Qureshi (56,821 votes). He was defeated by Pir Aslam Bodla of PML-Q (57,777 votes). NA-163 Sahiwal-IV, Begum Shahnaz Javed (37,986 votes). Malik Nauman Ahmed Langriyal of PML-Q won the seat with 39,864 votes. NA-60 (Chakwal-I) Fozia Behram (24,546 votes). Ayaz Amir of PML-N with 1,25,437 votes won this seat. Sardar Muhammad Nawab Khan of PML-Q was the runner-up here. NA-93 (TT-Sing-II) Hafeez-Ullah Ishaq (17,994 votes). Kashif Ashfaq of PML-Q with 64,287 votes stood second to Junaid Anwaar Chudhary of PML-N with 84,061 votes. Both parties can snatch this seat from PML-N if the major parties retain their respective vote banks. NA-101 (Gujranwala-VII), Asma Shahnawaz Cheema (37,554 votes). She may be asked not to contest election from this constituency making room for some other PML-Q candidate, as Hamid Nasir Chatha, the runner-up, has now left the party. Iftikhar Ahmad Cheema of PML-N won this seat in the last election securing 71,792 votes, but PPP and PMLQ may defeat Nawaz partys candidate here if the voting trends of previous election continue to prevail. NA-112-Sialkot-III, Lt Col (R) Sultan Sikandar Ghumman (29,477 votes). Ch Shujaat Hussain with 42,713 votes was runner-up in last election. NA-114 (Sialkot-V), Ghulam Abbas (55,797 votes). He will not contest in favour of Zahid Hamid of PML-Q who won this seat securing 62,362 votes. The two parties can also win this seat. Zahid Hamid of PML-N had won this seat with 62,362 votes in 2008 elections. NA-133 Sheikhupura-III, Malik Mushtaq Awan (16,228 votes) will have to abstain from election in favour of Ch Muhammad Saeed Virk of PML-Q who was runner-up with 28,005 votes. PML-Q may have the seat as Javid Latif of PML-N had won from here securing 44,784 votes which are less than the combined votes of PPP and PML-Q candidates. NA-136 Nankana Sahib-cum-Sheikhupura, ChTawakkal-Ullah Virk with 24,911 votes in last election will not contest next election to support Peer Tariq Ahmed Shah of PML-Q (39,371 votes), the runner-up in previous contest. PML-N candidate Bilal Virk won the seat securing 49,641 votes. PML-Q candidate may emerge victorious from this constituency on the basis of above-said considerations. NA-138 Kasur-I, Tariq Hakam Ali (30,630 votes) will abdicate in favour of Sardar Tofail Ahmed of PML-Q (39,986 votes). Rao Mazhar Hayat of PML-N had won the seat bagging 58,832 votes. Now this constituency can go to PML-Q if the two allies struggle together. NA-160 Sahiwal-I, Anwar-ul-Haq Ramay (27,638 votes). Ch Nauraiz Shakoor Khan of PML-Q if awarded the ticket again can win the seat against PML-N candidate if PPP voters also support him. Syed Imran Ahmed Shah of PML-N (59,373 votes). Nauriz had got 31119 votes in last election. NA-164 Pakpattan-I, Rao Muhammad Jameel Hashim (26,315 votes) will have to stay away from the contest to support Pir Muhammad Shah Khagga PML-Q. NA-182 Layyah-II, Syed Faqeer Hussain Shah (41,328 votes). Malik Niaz Ahmad Jakhar of PML-Q (52,108 votes) is likely to contest the coming election. Syed Muhammad Saqlain Bukhari of PML-N was the winner with 75,910 votes in previous election. PML-N may lose this seat on the basis of the above-said factors. The PPP candidates who will not contest coming elections on seats won by PML-Q in 2008 elections as per the agreed formula are: NA-58 Attock-II, Sardar Shahnawaz Khan of PPP who got 50,354 votes against Ch Parvez Elahi of PML-Q. Although he was at number three position but he is still a potential candidate. Malik Sohail Khan of PML-N was the runner-up with 59,726 votes. NA-65 Sargodha-II, Mahar Khliq Yar Khan Lak of PPP with 53,257 votes. He lost 2008 election with a narrow margin against Ch Ghiaz Ahmad Mela of PML-Q who got 53,518 votes. Mohsin Shah Nawaz Ranjah PML-N got 41,655 votes. NA-67 Sargodha-IV, Dr Zulfiqar Ali Bhatti of PPP with 66,392 votes, but lost to Ch Anwar Ali Cheema of PML who obtained 83,594 votes. NA-91 Jhang-VI, Attaulla of PPP who got 65,253 votes against 75,803 votes of Muhammad Mehboob Sultan of PML-Q, the winner. NA-94 TT Singh-III, Haider Ali Khan Kharal of PPP with 59,348 votes but lost to Riaz Fatiyana of PML-Q who secured 63,444 votes. NA-154 Lodhran-I, Mirza Muhammad Nasir Baig with 79,611 votes in the last elections. Saddique Baluch of PML-Q won the seat securing 81,983 votes. NA-171 DG Khan-I, Khawja Mudassir Mehmood of PPP with 19,221 votes lost to Khawja Sheeraz Mehmood of PML-Q (39,628 votes) in the last elections. NA-172 DG Khan-II, Shabbir Ahmad Khan Leghari of PPP (36,401votes). Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari of PML-Q won the seat obtaining 45,370 votes. Hafiz Abdul Karim PML-N 41,894 was the runner-up. NA-174 Rajanpur-I, Khawaja Kaleem-ud-Din Koreja of PPP with 38,484 votes. Sardar Muhammad Jafar Khan Leghari of PML-Q defeated him getting 50,440 votes. NA-181 Layyah-I, Choudhary Altaf Hussain of PPP with 46,149 votes was defeated by Sardar Bahadar Ahmad Khan Seehar of PML-Q who got 58,797 votes. NA-188 Bahawalnagar-I, Shoukat Ali Joya Laleka of PPP with 44,861 votes lost to Muhammad Akhtar Khadim Alias Khadim Hussain of PML-Q who bagged 52,981 votes. Here is list of PML-Q affectees due to PPP winners and runners-up: NA-64 (Sargodha-I) Haroon Ehsan Piracha, NA-66 (Sargodha-III) Begum Malik Shoaib Awan, NA-75 (Faisalabad-I) Lietutant Col (R)Ghulam Rasul Sahi, NA-76 (Faisalabad-II) Zahid Nazir, NA-78 (Faisalabad-IV) Mian Rajab Ali Khan Baloch, NA-81 (Faisalabad-VII) Doctor Nisar Ahmad Jat, NA-86 (Jhang-I) Muhammad Tahir, NA-97 (Gujranwala-III) Ch Shahid Akram Bhinder, NA-99 (Gujranwala-V) Ch Shamshad Ahmad Khan, NA-105 Gujrat-II C Shujaat Hussain, NA-106-Gujrat-III Syed Noor-ul-Hassan Shah, NA-108-M.B Din-I, Zafarullah Tarar, NA-111-Silakot-II Ch Amir Hussain, NA-126-Lahore-IX Muhammad Idrees, NA-128 Lahore-XI Sardar Aqil Omer, NA-129 Lahore-XII Maj (R) Habib Ullah Warraich, NA-130 Lahore-XIII Ch Muhammad Ashiq Dyial, NA-132-Sheikhupura-II Shahid Manzoor Gill, NA-140 Kasur-III Mian Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri, but he has left the party, NA-143 Okara-I Muhammad Aslam Khan Kharral, NA-145 Okara-III Syed Gulzar Sabtain Shah, NA-146 Okara-IV Rao Muhammad Ajmal, NA-148 Multan-I Rai Mansab Ali, NA-149 Multan-II Sheikh Muhammad Tahir Rasheed, NA-150 Multan-III Fazal Ahmad Sheikh, NA-151-IV Sikandar Hayat Khan Bossan, NA-152 Multan-V Syed Mujahid Ali Shah, NA-159 Khanewal-IV Malik Ghulam Murtaza Maitla, NA-161 Sahiwal-II Rana Tariq Javed, NA-168 Vehari-II Ishaq Khan Khakwani, NA-170 Vehari-IV Aurangzaib Khan Khichi, NA-175 Rajanpur-II Sardar Nasrullh Khan Dreshak, NA-176 Muzaffargarh-I Malik Ghulam Qasim Hinjra, NA-177 Muzaffargarh-II Khalid Ahmad Gurmani, NA-179 Muzaffargarh-IV Makhdom Zada Syed Basit Ahmad Sultan Bukhari, NA-180 Muzaffargarh-V Sardar Ashiq Hussain Gopan, NA-183 Bahawalpur-I Mukhdoom Syed Sami-ul-Hassan Gilani, NA-185 Bahawalpur-III Muhammad Afrooq Anwar Abbasi, NA-189 Bahawalnagar-II Shahida Sattar Laleka, NA-190 Bahawalnagar-III Tahir Bashir Cheema, NA-191 Bahawalnagar-IV Muhammad Ijaz-Ul-Haq, NA-192 Rahimyar Khan-I Makhdoom Syed Ahmad Alam Anwar, NA-193 Rahimyar Khan-II Sheikh Muhammad Anwar, NA-194 Rahimyar Khan-III Makhdoom Khusru Bakhtiar, NA-195 Rahimyar Khan-IV Makhdoom Syed Ali Akbar Mehmood and NA-196 Rahimyar Khan-V Ch Zaffar Iqbal Warraich. Too much at stake for PPP, PML-Q alliance