On Friday, President Obama announced that the US will maintain its current posture of 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016, reducing that number to 5,500 by early 2017, with troops stationed at several bases around the country, including Bagram, Jalalabad and Kandahar. Once more the US has slowed its drawback from Afghanistan in the face of a changing security situation.
Despite President Obama’s attempts to present this latest announcement in the most positive light, one thing is certain, that the Obama administration was overly optimistic about the Afghanistan’s ability to defend themselves against the Taliban and other militant groups. The fall of Kunduz precipitated the fact that was becoming clearer throughout the difficult campaign fought by the Afghan Security forces, the Taliban are still a threat, and Afghanistan alone cannot deal with them.
Even though Obama went to great lengths to emphasise that there will be no change in the scope of the mission – training and support – the decision to stay behind is a prudent one. The lesson learnt in Iraq has not been forgotten, Afghanistan must not be allowed to implode. The decision was welcome by NATO and the unity government of Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah, who had been trying hard to convince the Americans to stay. It shows that the Afghan government appreciates that the war against the Taliban is not over. It is only hoped that this appreciation manifests itself into prudent policy changes.
Afghanistan’s relationship with Pakistan, which had started out so positively at the start of Ashraf Ghani’s tenure has now fallen into a rut – and so too has the cooperation between their military and intelligence agencies. During of which the height of their cooperation, the Taliban treat looked like a manageable one; the failure of which has led to a resurgence in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Bilateral engagement must be strengthened once more, and the onus for this lies on Afghanistan. Asking US troops to say for another year will not endear the government to the people or the Taliban, if it can risk their displeasure to maintain some stability, it can surly risk displeasure at home to restart engagement with Pakistan – the only permanent regional partner in the war against the militants.