Afghanistan has been a flashpoint for the past four decades. It has suffered the most as world powers intruded it at will for vested interests. The blood of innocents was spilled ruthlessly. Infrastructure was destroyed, society polarised, tribalism and sectarianism rose steeply. Sovereignty was breached and coerced at will. Historically, Afghanistan has been a gateway for countries as it has little to offer in terms of natural resources. Unfortunately, world powers have used this gateway as a battleground for power contestation. In the last two decades, so called Afghan leaders in governments have proven to be pawns for their Foreign Masters in attaining their larger designs. Still the country is suffering and seems at the brink of another somewhat civil war being fanned by abrupt departure of US and its allies.
Both USSR and USA used Afghanistan not for its resources but to administer its neighbors and the region encircling it. The Soviets wanted to counter US influence in the region by colonizing Afghanistan. From here they could make their way to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan or Iran. USSR’s Cold War nemesis did not allow her stated designs. US created narrative against the soviets and gathered fighters from all over the Muslim world. They were trained, funded and launched against USSR. They were projected as freedom fighters engaged against occupation forces. In the process Afghans suffered, USSR got coerced enough and the Americans left asking Pakistan to clean the mess.
The Talibans, the anti-Soviet warriors were the brainchild of America. Their representatives were frequent visitors of the White House as US was highlighting war crimes the Soviets were committing. However, post 9/11 the US launched a campaign against the group it founded. Now US was at war with the Talibans. They were rebranded as the face of terrorism, fanaticism and oppression. All of sudden allies became adversaries and a new US led escapade began. They invaded Afghanistan under a hazy pretext and it kept changing. At first it was aimed to nip the perpetrators of 9/11, then expanding to clamping extremism and ensuring Human Rights, then to uprooting terrorism. As every engineered narrative and outfit has a shelf life, therefore multiple narratives and terrorist outfits were floated to justify their rhetoric and presence in Afghanistan.
In reality, USA wanted dominance in the region and wanted to shun or obstruct growth of all potential rivals. USA had many designs. It wanted to curb China’s burgeoning economy by creating instability in the region. It wanted to hurdle the anticipatory influence of China in the neighborhood by staying next door. It desired to deny China access to CARs and their resources. It also wanted to trigger proxies against Chinese mainland through Afghan border. As for Pakistan, US wanted to keep it instable so it stays in her clutches. Correspondingly it regulated, patronaged and funded all hostile proxies including of RAW and NDS against Pakistan at will. Pakistan therefore got the major hit. It suffered the most in men and material. US still views stable and rising Pakistan as a threat to its construct of world power mosaic. Indo US strategic alliance as opposed to Pak US transactional relationship reflect the US mindset. After all Pakistan is a nuclear state with all the potentials to rise and radiate influence in the region especially in the Muslim world. While in Afghanistan US desired to keep Iran coerced for vested interests. It wanted to deny Russia the influence and economic gains in CARs and South Asia.
Now after 20 years and the loss of trillions of dollars and thousands of lives, have the Americans retracted their designs? The answer is NO yes Big NO!! The abrupt US withdrawal from Afghanistan exposes the nefarious designs it has. It still wants Afghanistan to remain polarized, instable and threat to within and outside. By ensuring no peace deal between Ashraf Ghani and Talibans, US has seeded instability for next decade at least. US would meet her designs through triggering and funding her puppets within Afghanistan. Now will the Taliban defeat US designs while in power???? The momentum and apparent support by China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, CARs and Pakistan could pave the way. But the bug stops at Talibans themselves. They need to be adaptable and moderate while remaining in the sharia bandwidth. China and Russia being in the lead supported by Iran, CARS and Pakistan may make an effort to defeat US designs for safeguarding their respective interests. But it has a cost attached to it for economically weaker states like Pakistan. But then prudence, statecraft and resolve for sovereignty can undo the foreseeable knots. Eventually defeat of US designs in Afghanistan would accelerate unipolarity towards China by default.
What has been the cost Pakistan paid? No other country in the world has suffered the way Pakistan did ever since US invasion in Afghanistan. Over 80,000 human causalities have been endured due to spillover effects next door. There has been direct loss of over 152 billion US dollars to the already depleted economy besides almost same volume in indirect losses. Pakistan remained victim of Afghan based terrorism leading to instability thus impeding much needed economic growth. This quagmire retarded Foreign Direct Investment for over two decades. This trauma gets more serious once seen with population explosion within requiring human development and job opportunities. Even while being in apparent economic jail, Pakistan preferred humanity as it is in fact still housing over four million Afghan refugees. This is unprecedented. No country can dare to even dream this. These Refugees are predominantly peace lovers but few have proven to be inhumane and proxies of hostile intelligence agencies. These hostile puppets brought in drug and gun culture besides terrorism thus impacting negatively on peace loving fabric of our society. Above challenges led us to economic coercion of international donors on best of their Masters. Even our sovereignty was breached at will.
Irony is World did not realize the sacrifices and instead blame Pak playing double game. What a shame. These so called civilized World powers thought us to be lesser human, cheaper blood and of lesser God. The occupation forces scapegoated Pakistan for their failures to satisfy their masses back home. These so called world powers proved themselves to be shallow and hypocrite. However silver lining is the youth buldge which is about 65% have realized and won’t forget those who humiliated our unprecedented sacrifices in all domains especially in men and material. PM Imran Khan worded the aspirations of youth buldge when he stated categorically “Pakistan will be a partner in peace only and will never be a partner in conflict.”
Given the trauma, this region needs peace and tranquility. Besides Afghanistan no other country needs peace more than Pakistan. Pakistan needs to break free from the clutches of International donors. Pakistan needs revenue for Human Resource development. It needs rapid growth and industrial revolution to address its trade deficit. It needs job creation corresponding to rising youth buldge. This all can happen once there is peace in the neighborhood. Any violence and instability in Afghanistan would have spillover effects as before. Pakistan has no more capacity to house more refugee influx. In the given economic challenges, CPEC is viewed as the lifeline and a game changer. Its connectivity to CARs through Afghanistan can enhance generation of transit revenue as well as ensure availability of cheaper energy and materials without any political strings. China needs stability in the region for attaining its vision of geo-economics based on economic interdependence and connectivity. It needs to connect with CARs for economic gains and political influence. Russia also wants to keep her arch-rival away from the region. CARs themselves need peace around them to prosper. There comes the opportunity for all these regional players to ensure lasting peace is established in Afghanistan. All states must ensure an all-inclusive and broad based political settlement through Afghan led Afghan owned process. This would facilitate sustainable peace and defeat to US and western designs.