Farooq Hameed Khan The intergovernmental agreement for laying the $7.6 billion 1,700 km Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline was recently concluded in the Turkmen capital Ashgabat by the Presidents of three member countries, while India was represented by its energy minister. Under this gas pipeline framework agreement, Turkmenistan will supply around 3.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from its South Yolotan and Usman gas fields. Both Pakistan and India will each receive 1,325 million cubic feet per day of gas, while Afghanistan will receive 500 million cubic feet daily. With Pakistans gas requirement increasing annually by 10 percent, the yawning supply-demand gap and widespread civil unrest, due to consumer and commercial loadshedding, TAPI gas pipeline is considered vital to satisfy its appetite for energy. With certification and partial funding by the Asian Development Bank, the pipeline will stretch from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and onwards to Fazilka in India and is expected to commence gas flow by 2015. Negotiations between the four countries on gas price and transit tariffs will follow in the coming months. Attempts to build a pipeline through Afghanistan date back to the mid-1990s, when the US-led consortium Unocal was locked in fierce competition with Argentinas Bridas to win a deal to construct and run the route. However, after the Taliban gained control of Afghanistan, this ambitious project was shelved and remained dormant ever since. That TAPI will ever see the light of the day depends largely on sustained peace in Afghanistan, particularly in the Taliban-controlled Helmand and Kandahar regions through which the pipeline will pass. Without cooperation and support of the Afghan Taliban, TAPIs construction and uninterrupted operation represents a major security challenge with heavy reliance on deals with local Taliban warlords, following the American model of bribing them to secure a safe passage for the US/NATO forces and their goods whenever required. The Afghan government, which expects to earn millions of dollars in transit fees, has guaranteed the pipelines security through a 7,000 strong Afghan force. While TAPIs construction and operation promise job opportunities for the local Baloch, especially skilled technical manpower, Pakistan would also have to raise a special force for pipeline security through Balochistan. While TAPI has full support of India and US, the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project seems to be stalling. Further progress on IP remains hostage to strained Iran-US relations. The US would not only like to deprive Iran of cash benefits by selling surplus gas to Pakistan, but also deny its onward transmission to energy thirsty China through the proposed trade and energy corridor from Gwadar up north through the Karakoram to Xinjiang, Chinas autonomous eastern region. TAPI also offers bright prospects for US energy giants to secure lucrative contracts for the pipelines construction, which are impossible in the IP case, due to Washingtons sanctions on Iran. For India, the IP option was shorter, cheaper, easier to build and relatively more secure, yet it backed out of the IP agreement under USAs pressure, only to be rewarded with the civil nuclear energy deal by Washington. The IP gas pipeline, which will offer 750 million cubic feet gas daily to Pakistan, is both technically and economically feasible, but its build up into Pakistan appears to be delayed, due to the non-availability/allocation of funds or a weakening commitment of the present leadership. While Iran has declared that the 1,000 km gas pipeline infrastructure on the Iranian side was ready, the 800 km part on the Pakistan side has yet to take off. If the Chinese were to co-fund this project and security conditions in Balochistan improve, the IPC (Iran-Pakistan-China) gas pipeline could well be a reality by 2014. While Pakistans Petroleum Minister has reiterated that the IP gas pipeline project is in an advanced stage, the US has encouraged the TAPI project as an alternative to the IP. Any move by Pakistan towards delaying the IP project to appease the US would not only supplement the American efforts to isolate Iran, but would further strain Pak-Iran relations. Any attempt to abandon IP in favour of TAPI will not only be detrimental to our energy security, but may harm Chinas strategic energy related interests through Pakistan. Nevertheless, both TAPI and IP highlight Pakistans geo-strategic importance, as it provides the much needed overland energy corridor from the Middle East, Iran and Central Asia to China and India. With the energy-starved India desperate to benefit from these energy riches to sustain its rising economy, Pakistan holds the key to its access to the Central Asian energy reserves and TAPIs success in particular. That Pakistan remains under increasing US pressure to allow the Indian overland trade route through Wagha to Afghanistan /Central Asia was evident in the manner the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement was concluded in presence of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her last visit to Islamabad. This agreement, which facilitated the movement of Afghan goods to India via Wagha border check post, was perhaps the first part of the Indo-US plan in this respect. Thanks to the media and public pressure that thwarted the second part, which if agreed upon by the Pakistani government could have secured the Indian trade route to Afghanistan via Wagha. TAPI is, therefore, another significant breakthrough for Indias economic future, with Pakistan gaining no concessions from India in the process. Hopefully, Pakistan will negotiate the gas transit royalties with India from a position of strength. If only our leaders play their cards sensibly, India could well be forced to stop its interference in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, resolve the Kashmir and water disputes in return for the trade and energy passages to and from Central Asia. Both TAPI and IP demonstrate how energy pipelines, and regional cooperation, are vulnerable to political and strategic interests of the neighbours and international players. For Pakistan, while TAPI and IP projects must go on in parallel, the fast track development of indigenous oil and gas resources must, however, remains a national priority. The writer is a retired brigadier. Email:fhkhan54@gmail.com