Japan, in the end of 2022, unveiled a new national security plan that signals the country’s biggest military buildup since World War II, doubling defense spending and veering from its pacifist constitution in the face of growing threats from regional rivals. In televised address in Tokyo, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government had approved three security documents—the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Force Development Plan—to bolster Japan’s defense capabilities amid an increasingly unstable security environment.
The increase in defense spending is around 43 trillion yen ($314 billion) from fiscal year 2023 to 2027. It implies the world’s third-largest defense budget, after the US and China. This is a 56.5 percent increase from the 27.47 trillion yen in the current five-year plan, which covers fiscal year 2019 to 2023. This will increase Japan’s defense spending to the NATO standard of 2 percent of the national GDP in 2027. The increased defense spending will allow Japan to acquire many standoff missiles that can be used for counterforce strike. As per the Japanese officials, the three conditions for Tokyo’s use of counterstrike missiles are: when an armed attack against Japan or a foreign country that is in a close relationship with Tokyo threatens Japan’s national survival, if there are no other appropriate measures to remove the threat, and if the use of force is limited to a minimum necessity. Importantly, the new strategy includes acquisition of pre-emptive counterstrike capabilities, such as 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, and the development of its own hypersonic weapons.
Historically after the end of World War II, Japan adopted a pacifist constitution that renounces war and prohibits the use of military force for settling international disputes. This constitution, which was created under the guidance of the United States, was designed to prevent Japan from becoming a militaristic nation again. In the early years after World War II, Japan’s focus was on rebuilding its economy and society, and not on developing a military. Japan relied on the United States for its defense under the US-Japan Security Treaty, which was signed in 1951 and revised in 1960.
However, in recent years, there has been growing willingness in Japan about amending the constitution to allow for a more robust military. In 2015, the Japanese government passed legislation that allowed the country’s military to engage in limited overseas combat operations for the first time since World War II. This move was controversial and faced criticism from some quarters, but it demonstrated a growing willingness in Japan to consider a more assertive role in international affairs.
The biggest focus of the three security documents is how to deal with a rising China. How will Japan defend itself in the face of China’s rapid military rise? How much defense capability and defense budget will Japan need to confront China? Those are the fundamental questions behind the documents, although never explicitly stated there. The updated language of the NSS describes China as “the biggest strategic challenge” for Japan, while the 2013 version of the NSS only called China’s actions an “issue of concern to the international community.”
Tokyo’s new defense strategy drew praise from its ally, the United States, which shares a mutual defense treaty with Japan and is pledged to defend Japanese territory from attack. The United States also operates several large military installations in Japan, including Yokosuka Naval Base, home to the US Navy’s 7th Fleet. “We welcome the release of Japan’s updated strategy documents which reflect Japan’s staunch commitment to upholding the international rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a statement. “We support Japan’s decision to acquire new capabilities that strengthen regional deterrence, including counterstrike capabilities,” Austin said. The US ambassador in Tokyo, Rahm Emanuel, also welcomed the strategies as “a momentous milestone” for US-Japan relations and for making a “free and open Indo-Pacific” an achievable reality.
Meanwhile in a regular press briefing in early December, China’s Foreign Ministry accused Japan of “hyping up regional tensions to seek military breakthroughs,” and said Japan needs to “earnestly reflect on its history of aggression, respect the security concerns of Asian neighbors, act prudently in the field of military security, and do more things that are conductive to regional peace and stability.” Also, an editorial in the Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times on Wednesday blasted the new security policy even before it was unveiled. “The signal it releases is undoubtedly very dangerous,” it said. “Using this to guide the national security strategy will definitely lead Japan into a dangerous and barbaric drift, and the end is a huge dark vortex. We advise Japan to take it easy,” Global Times said.
Moreover, a similar trend toward militarisation has emerged among Japan’s allies. Australia and India have embarked on the same path. Germany, another pacifist country, has pledged to boost its defense spending to 2% of GDP and accept a military leadership role in Europe. The United Kingdom has already surpassed the 2%-of-GDP level, yet aims to double its defense spending by 2030. The US has just hiked its already-mammoth military spending by 8%. And Sweden and Finland are joining a reinvigorated NATO.