ISLAMABAD     -          The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said that Pakistan’s GDP growth had deteriorated to 3.3 percent in fiscal year 2018-2019, which was lowest rate in last 8 years. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB) report released. “Preliminary official estimates for Pakistan show growth in FY2019 (ended 30 June 2019) deteriorating to 3.3percent, the lowest rate in 8 years, pulled down by weak performance across the board. Rising twin deficits in the fiscal and current accounts weigh on Pakistan’s outlook,” It added that inflation in Pakistan almost doubled from 3.8 percent in the same period of FY2018 to 7.2 percent in FY2019.  Pakistan’s GDP growth remained lower as compared to the other countries of South Asia. Whereas Indian GDP growth has projected at 7 percent during FY2019 and growth in Bangladesh accelerated from 7.9 percent in FY2018 to 8.1 percent in FY2019 with faster growth in industry and services. Similarly, GDP growth in Nepal accelerated from an upwardly revised 6.7 percent in FY2018 to 7.1 percent in FY2019. However, Pakistan’s GDP growth recorded at only 3.3 percent in FY2019.

According to the report, developing Asia will maintain strong but moderating growth over 2019 and 2020, as supportive domestic demand counteracts an environment of global trade tensions. In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO), ADB maintains growth forecasts for developing Asia at 5.7 percent in 2019 and 5.6 percent in 2020 which is unchanged from its April forecast. These growth rates are slightly down from developing Asia’s 5.9 percent growth in 2018. Excluding the newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei, the regional growth outlook has been revised down from 6.2percent to 6.1percent in 2019 and maintained at that rate in 2020.

Deepening trade tension between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (US) remains the largest downside risk to this outlook, despite an apparent truce in late June that could allow trade negotiations between the two countries to resume. The growth outlook for East Asia in 2019 has been revised down to 5.6percent because of slower than expected activity in the Republic of Korea. The sub-region’s growth outlook of 5.5percent for 2020 is unchanged from April. Growth for the sub-region’s largest economy, the PRC, is also unchanged, with forecasts of 6.3percent in 2019 and 6.1percent in 2020, as policy support offsets softening growth in domestic and external demand. In South Asia, the economic outlook is robust, with growth projected at 6.6percent in 2019 and 6.7percent in 2020, albeit lower than forecast in April. The growth outlook for India has been cut to 7.0percent in 2019 and 7.2percent in 2020 because the fiscal 2018 outturn fell short.

The outlook for Southeast Asia has been downgraded slightly to 4.8percent in 2019 and 4.9percent in 2020 due to the trade impasse and a slowdown in the electronics cycle. In Central Asia, the growth outlook for 2019 has been revised up to 4.3percent on account of an improved outlook for Kazakhstan. Central Asia’s growth outlook of 4.2percent for 2020 is unchanged from April. The growth outlook in the Pacific is 3.5percent in 2019 and 3.2percent in 2020 which is unchanged, as the sub region continues to rebound from the effects of Cyclone Gita and an earthquake in Papua New Guinea, the sub region’s largest economy. The major industrial economies have slight revisions to their growth forecasts, with the US revised up to 2.6percent for 2019 and the Euro area revised down to 1.3percent. The growth outlook for Japan is unchanged at 0.8percent in 2019 and 0.6percent in 2020.