While the Hamas attack on October 7 last year was surprising for the world and a dent to the invincibility of the Israeli defence and intelligence apparatus, the subsequent war of retribution by Israel can be equated with the holocaust and the worst kind of genocide against the hapless Palestinians, especially women and children. Israeli genocide continues, and Hamas has borne the brunt, whose strength has been substantially decimated. Now, Israel has turned towards Hezbollah in Lebanon; the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and over 2000 Lebanese is reminiscent of Israel’s unilateral solution to the Palestinian problem. In Netanyahu’s playbook, Palestine does not figure as an entity, let alone as a separate state.
Israel has not confined its actions against Hamas or Hezbollah alone but expanded the conflict to Iran, which it considers as the mentor of these organizations. The Iran-Israel enmity dates back to the Iranian Revolution 45 years ago. While Iran would swear by annihilation of Israel, the latter vowed to make use of any opportunity to harm Iranian interests inside and outside the country. The periodic killing of top Iranian officials by Israel has only aggravated the situation between Iran and Israel. Iran has also emerged as a champion of the Palestinian right to self-determination by extending financial and military assistance to Hamas and Hezbollah. Therefore, expanding the area of conflagration to Iran has been Israel’s goal. In doing so, Israel enjoys the support of both the Americans and the West.
Israel’s plans to drag Iran into the conflict have been in the making for the past many years. From the very beginning, Israel took it upon itself to take on the Iranian nuclear scientists and IRGC officials. The killing of Chief scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (November 2020), Razi Mousavi, a senior Iranian general, in the Syrian capital of Damascus on December 25, 2023, and Brigadier General Sadegh Omidzadeh, an intelligence officer with the IRGC Quds Force, on January 20 2024 were enough provocations for Iran to retaliate. IRGC’s Quds Force Commander, Gen Soleimani was killed by the Americans (January 2020) in Iraq. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who led the elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, was killed by Israel. It also killed Zahedi’s deputy, Gen Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, and five other officers in April 2024.
On October 2, Iran attacked Israel with 181 missiles to respond to a series of provocative actions Israel took, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC’s Quds Force deputy commander Gen Nealfroushan. Earlier, Israel had killed Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh while staying in Tehran as a guest of the Iranian government. What Iran did was right is a matter of debate, but one thing is clear: Israel’s provocations in the past few months left no room for Iran to exercise restraint.
Closer home, Israel is out to create a “new normal” by re-occupying the Palestinian territory it had conceded to the Palestinians after the Oslo Accords in September 1993. In doing so, it has adopted a classical approach of portraying victimhood at the hands of Palestinians or blaming Iran for prompting its proxies—Hamas and Hezbollah. Netanyahu, whose political fortunes were looking shaky a year ago, has surged to an unprecedented level, further emboldening his and his ultra-right coalition partners in the government. Unfortunately, the US and the West have not gone beyond lip service in counselling Israel to exercise restraint. President Biden hinted at Israel’s “proportionate response” to Iran’s attacks. The UN Security Council has become a silent spectator while Israel massacres innocent people with impunity.
The ongoing genocide in Gaza and Lebanon poses a serious challenge to the Muslim world; the OIC, meant to secure the rights of the Palestinians, is being criticized for failing to live up to its charter in saving the Palestinian people. More importantly, the neighbouring Arab states and the Arab League are seen as silent spectators. Concurrently, Arab analysts apprehend that Arab streets may go restless if the Israeli genocide continues, threatening Arab regimes. It appears that Iran has taken the lead over the Arab states in its outright support of the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Arab people are increasingly on the side of Iran and Arab resistance.
The question arises whether Israel has the audacity to take on Iran despite its military prowess. No doubt, Israel enjoys technological superiority over Iran and Arab resistance, called the Axis of Resistance, but Israel’s missile defence system, Iron Dome, failed to provide foolproof security to the incoming Iranian missiles. More importantly, the October 2 missile attacks by Iran have proved Iran’s ability and resolve to reciprocate Israel’s provocations. In the present milieu, Israel may start the war, but it would not be able to finish it.
Similarly, Israel’s plans to attack Iran’s nuclear installations may backfire as, being aware of a veritable threat to its nuclear programme, Iran would not let its nuclear assets become an easy target of Israel or others. Instead, a threat to the Iranian nuclear assets would force Iran to quit the NPT and declare Iran a nuclear weapons state. Not to forget that Iran’s declaration of nuclear weapons state status would not be restricted to Iran—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and UAE would be next in the line to acquire nuclear weapons, causing a total collapse of an already paralyzed disarmament regime.
If the past is a guide, Israel’s plans to eliminate Hamas or Hezbollah may not achieve the desired results. In 1982, Israel went into Lebanon and massacred thousands of Palestinians. However, during its occupation, Hezbollah took birth, which forced Israel to leave Lebanon.
The forgoing offers a gloomy picture for the entire Middle East, although a major conflagration could be anticipated between Israel and Iran. The Islamic world must forge a unified stance to meet the challenge posed by Israel’s intransigence. It would require proactive diplomacy by the OIC major powers, including Pakistan. Pakistan has always stood by the Palestinians. Now, they need our help, which we must extend and also express solidarity with Iran if Israel threatens it.
Asif Durrani
The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan to Iran and UAE, currently working as a Senior Research Fellow at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI). He is the author of the book “Turmoil: Events in Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, Ukraine and Pakistan”.