The recent TTP terrorism attacks in Peshawar targeting politicians, on the eve of 2013 elections, have added to the fear that more such violence may jeopardise the holding of the May polls. The attacks are not restricted to KPK and not only aimed at ANP. There have been strikes elsewhere too, by different terrorist groups. In Balochistan, in the Khuzdar area, the provincial chief of PML-N Sardar Sanaullah Zehri escaped death, while his brother, son and nephew were killed. Karachi has its own hellish happenings.
How has Pakistan fallen into the clutches of terrorism? Why has terrorism gone on for the last so many years? Why have our armed forces failed to put a stop to this terrible tragedy, which has taken a toll of more than 40,000 lives plus 6,000 armed forces’ casualties?
How did it all start?
One has to go back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan when the US-backed mujahideen successfully repulsed the Soviet Army and won the war. After the Soviet exit, the US too withdrew, letting the Afghans fight out the battles for domination amongst themselves. The so-called Taliban, who enjoyed the Pakistani government’s support, emerged victorious. Their claim to a legitimate government in Afghanistan was recognised by Islamabad and two other Islamic countries. Many of these militant Taliban were educated in madrassas located in the northwest of Pakistan. Many of them, who joined the mujahideen and who fought with the Soviet forces, returned and got involved in the liberation struggle going on in Kashmir.
"The organisational strength, military strategy and leadership quality of the Taliban in Pakistan's tribal territories has qualitatively improved during the last few years. At the time of the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan in late 2001, allies and sympathisers of the Taliban in Pakistan were not identified as ‘Taliban’ themselves. That reality is now a distant memory. Today, Pakistan's indigenous Taliban are an effective fighting force and are engaging the Pakistani military on one side and Nato forces on the other.
“The transition from being Taliban supporters and sympathisers to becoming a mainstream Taliban force in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) initiated when many small militant groups operating independently in the area started networking with one another. This sequence of developments occurred while the Pakistani forces were spending the majority of their resources finding ‘foreigners’ in the area linked to al-Qaeda (roughly in the 2002–04 period). Soon, many other local extremist groups, which were banned in Pakistan, started joining the Taliban ranks in Fata - some as followers while others as partners.
“During this process, the Pakistani Taliban never really merged into the organisational structure of the Afghan Taliban under Mullah Omar; instead, they developed a distinct identity. During this process, the Pakistani Taliban effectively established themselves as an alternative leadership to the traditional tribal elders. By the time the Pakistani government realised the changing dynamics and tried to resurrect the tribal jirga institution, it was too late. The Taliban had killed approximately 200 of the tribal elders under charges of being Pakistani and American spies.
“These developments explain the genesis of a new formation: Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP refers to the Taliban ‘movement’ in Pakistan that coalesced in December 2007 under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud.......,” wrote a former Senior Advisor at Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in his article titled "A Profile of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan".
The Pakistani army has been fighting the TTP now for the last many years. Besides the casualties on both sides, large displacements of the local population has taken place in the tribal areas where life has been destabilised and traditional administrative setup sabotaged. Little has been done to rehabilitate the thousands of dislocated families.
What are the prospects of the Pak Army’s success in defeating the Taliban and restoring peace in Fata and the nearby areas?
Considering the failure of the mighty US-led Nato forces, after a decade of fighting in Afghanistan to subdue the Afghan Taliban, can one be sure that the Pakistani army will succeed in suppressing the equally determined TTP and their allies Pakistan’s northwest areas? Can the state afford to deploy its armed forces against its own people for many more years to come, keeping in view the results so far achieved? Why is it that no well-researched study has been undertaken by the government to understand this whole phenomenon of unending and, in fact, escalating terrorism and how to comprehensively address its core and various dimensions? Also, how it is that the tremendous military and human cost it has had to pay for pursuing the American line has only brought stinging criticism and worrisome accusations of double-crossing and deceptive manoeuvrings.
Imran Khan, the Chairman of Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI), has been advocating a halt to the Pakistan Army’s operations in Fata. His thesis is that by involving ourselves in the American war after Nine Eleven, Pakistan has committed a big blunder that has inflicted an enormous damage to its society and economy. General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s unwise starting of a military operation in the tribal areas has turned the patriotic tribesmen living in the northwest of the country into an enemy.
Imran rightly cites the fact that there were hardly any suicide attacks in Pakistan prior to Musharraf’s impolitic rush into fighting our own people. True to their history and culture, they have been fiercely hitting back. Even the British could not subdue them. They are dead against the Americans for what the US and Nato have done in Afghanistan and what the drone strikes are doing to their kith and kin.
The sad fact is that the militant Taliban in Pakistan received encouragement from the stupid policy of a myopic and timid military dictator, who with a view to bolstering his own position and taking advantage of a situation after Nine Eleven unthinkingly worked against the integrity and interests of Pakistan. It was unfortunate that the military operations have continued, even after his removal from the office usurped by him. One has here also to blame the tainted and weak political leadership that succeeded him for not reviewing his disastrous policy and take steps to stop the war.
With so much blood spilt on both sides, it has become extremely difficult to arrive at a quick settlement. It was a mistake to lose the opportunity provided by the Taliban leadership, a few weeks ago, to open talks and move towards a cessation of military activities. A poor leadership failed to avail of this offer. It is time the military bosses seriously review their approach and work for a settlement to spare the country and the people further death and destruction.
It is also time that Pakistan raises seriously the question of the drones violating our sovereignty and killing our civilians with impunity at the UN and the International Court of Justice. We should plainly tell Washington that the Pakistani route for the transportation of goods and personnel would not be available in 2014 to them, unless these air attacks are stopped altogether. It is vital that the state uses its resources - intellectual, political, financial, social and military - and takes all necessary steps to safeguard the lives of the candidates cleared for the coming elections as also essential, preventive measures, so that the feared damage is kept to the minimum. (One wonders, if the present federal caretakers have the guts and the sagacity to meet this challenge.)
Hopefully, the newly-elected government would have the wisdom and the will to take up the initiatives suggested above to save Pakistan from further ruin and misery.
        The writer is an ex-federal secretary and ambassador, and a freelance political and international relations analyst.