President Biden’s initiatives are focussed mainly on four of our immediate neighbours: China, Afghanistan, Iran and India. India, as the strategic partner of the US will be acting as the proxy to his designs. These developments are indicative of a significant impact on Pakistan’s national security interests as well as offering the opportunity to carve-out a new destiny for ourselves that could provide lasting relief from decades of brutalities perpetrated against the Muslim world.
China: America is forming a “cold war alliance” against China and is coercing other countries to join. The new American Secretary of State Blinken has cautioned Europe not to sign the Investment Agreement with China at its back. There is a very strong reaction in Europe against the American attitude. The German Chancellor Markel, in particular, has strongly condemned this gang-up against China:
“Whether it is Trump or Biden, they are in fact the same. There is no essential difference between them in containing China’s rise. Trump has stepped down, we don’t have to cheer and Biden is in power, we don’t have to smile to welcome.”
“Germany will not participate in any US-led behaviour, aimed at encirclement and suppression of China. Other countries also must not participate in this hegemonic behaviour. It is the most stark expression to oppose the rise of another country. Germany believes that China has the right to rise. We will not choose sides under US pressure, because this is a new type of ‘international tyranny’. The recently concluded China-US Investment Agreement provides the most powerful support and guarantee for Europe. Western Europe generally supports this viewpoint”.
Afghanistan: The Doha peace talks have been installed because the Biden administration wants to review the agreement and rewrite it, while the Taliban have abided by the terms of the deal. America wants the Taliban to agree to the presence of foreign troops and a ceasefire which is not possible. The Taliban are quite firm in their resolve to win their freedom, they have been fighting for the last four decades, and are not pushed for time.
Their Jihad has reached the culmination point as described in the Holy Quran: “They will not fight you even if they all come together, except in barricaded cities or from behind walls; you will assume them to be one, whereas their hearts are divided; this is because they are a people who do not have any sense”. (Surah Al-Hashar, Ayat. 14)
The Taliban ‘hardcore’ is made up of young fighters, born under the shadows of war. They enjoy unity of command under Mullah Haibatullah, who has created three combat zones of Afghan territory under their control. The Northern Command is under Mullah Umar’s son, Yaqub. The Southern Command is held by Sirajuddin Haqqani. The Central Command is under Mullah Haibatullah exercising control and coordination over the entire combat zone of Afghanistan. Together they hold sway over eighty percent of Afghan territory, where their law prevails. If, the foreign troops leave, Taliban would be free to move, without the fear of air strikes and drones, and in a matter of weeks, the opposition like Daesh, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the warlords and the host of enemy proxies will be wiped out, establishing the Islamic State of Afghanistan. If the foreign troops do not leave by May 1, 2021, the Taliban in any case, would launch an all out offensive to consolidate their hold over the held territories, forcing the Afghan government under siege, in towns and cities.
Iran: Iran has been brutalised and demonised for the last four decades, under the “maximum pressure policy” yet Iran stands firm on the Islamic principles of justice, sacrifice and honour. Their supreme leader has declared “Iran has fulfilled all its obligations under the Deal. If America wants Iran to return to its commitments, they must in practice lift all sanctions”. America also knows well that it cannot implement the Warsaw Plan, as it would cause an existential threat to Israel. The recently concluded Iran’s Strategic Partnership with China has demolished the American policy of sanctions and has suppressed Biden’s geo-economic strategy for the South Asian region. It is a fundamental blow to US hegemonic policies in this region, compelling it to evolve a new policy of relationship with Iran based on fair policy and justice.
There is no stopping to the “China and Iran Strategic Partnership (CISP) and CPEC, which is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) will expand westward, with common objectives and strategic orientation, to help achieve benefits acting as deterrence against all conspiracies.”
India: As the strategic defence Partner of the United States, India is committed “to contain and curb” the rising power of China”. Thus it is carrying out terror attacks into Pakistan from Afghan soil and continues to intensify the brutalities in Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir (IIOK), because America considers IIOK an internal matter of India.
These developments determine the collective security paradigm of Pakistan that would gain cover and protection, with the emergence of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and together with Revolutionary Iran, they would serve as the bedrock of the powerbase of the Muslim world, to deter and defeat, aggression and all conspiracies.
Biden’s initiatives are also meant to test our friendship with China, a trusted friend who has stood by us through thick and thin, investing nearly 30 billion dollars during the last six years. Our friendship is “deeper than the deep sea”, but the recent strategic cooperation deal with Iran, perhaps is a warning that Beijing is not going to rely mainly on Pakistan, whose “economic disequilibria is spiralling out of control. Pakistan needs a credible team, while 50 percent of PTI’s time is over and it is yet to put together a credible team. Remember modern slaves are not in chains, they are in debt.”