Too early to assess

HOW does one assess the economic implications of the President's resignation? At first sight, the changes would seem positive, what with the Karachi Stock Exchange having jumped more than 500 points and the rupee having risen to 74.50 after a particularly bad week. But the striking thing about the above is that they are both variables given to much speculation. They do not represent much more than the very current mood. To be fair, though, it is not reasonable to expect solid, sustainable changes a mere day after the resignation. The problems of the economy lie in bigger issues. Structural imbalances between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, fiscal pressures and worsening trade imbalances. Excess liquidity in the monetary markets was a problem as well but it would appear that the State Bank of Pakistan has that one covered - a bit too strictly, many would allege. This is a situation brought about on the general's watch. And it is going to be tough to get out of it. Even without him in the Presidency, a legacy of fiscal irresponsibility is going to haunt economic managers. The electorate, being what they are, however, will have no sympathy for that. The first structural change that can be brought about would be the eventual restoration of the deposed judiciary, which will lead towards the full return of the PML(N) to the Cabinet. It remains to be seen whether the finance portfolio would return to Ishaq Dar or not. Even if it doesn't, at least it would mean some closure to the effects of political tumult on the Ministry of Finance. The same is the case with the allied "economic" portfolios like agriculture and commerce. So the government can finally move on to actually getting its house in order. The situation with the President was necessary, regardless of economic costs. Having said that, we really can't afford any more political delays in getting things right.

ePaper - Nawaiwaqt