While Pakistan may be in the throes of a drastic economic turmoil brought about by its own unsustainable spending and mediocre revenue collection, it may soon find that it is not alone in suffering so. The global economy is slowing down – from the powerhouses such as Germany and China, to the new entrants like India and Brazil, the indicators are not encouraging. Growth and investment are stagnating and unemployment increasing; the concern can be seen in major stocks and commodities markets as well, which having burned their hands in the past are cautiously sticking to safe bets and avoiding even reasonably risky trades. Add to this mix the US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade war with China and all the ingredients point towards that dreaded word – recession.

Perhaps the most stark wakeup call for world would be the fact that a majority of economists expect a US recession in the next two years - although the keep pushing back the date of its onset considering the corrective policies taken by the government. Even Trump, known for speaking in unrealistic and hyperbolic terms, has conceded that experts are looking into the economy and are “prepared for everything”.

Pakistan was relatively unaffected during the 2008 recession compared to Europe and North America given its lack of proximity and dependence on those markets, but with our economy as precarious as it is at the moment, can we absorb another shock as great as this?

The answers to that question are not encouraging, however we should take encouragement from the fact that we are not in a recession yet. Economists have sounded the alarm bells, but D-day is still a few years away.

Till then, if the US brings an end to its ineffective trade war, the UK sorts out its Brexit strategy and other nations refrain from destabilizing adventurism, perhaps we can pull this looming disaster back from the brink.