Reports have emerged that the Afghan Taliban, using the Pakistani military as a conduit, have expressed their willingness to negotiate peace. After months of sustaining heavy causalities, without direct US and NATO support to fall back on, this represents a victory for Ashraf Ghani and a collective sigh of relief for apprehensive Afghans. Ghani used his inauguration speech to invite the Taliban to the table, and if he manages to reach a sustainable model of peace without compromising Afghan government sovereignty, he will be credited with bringing Afghanistan back from the brink of collapse. As such, these negotiations represent a major breakthrough and a valuable opportunity – but it must be approached with caution and realistic expectations.
This is not a victory for Ghani alone; Pakistan played a large role in bringing the Taliban to the table. Operation Zarb-e-Azb and Khyber One have destroyed Taliban sanctuaries and has pushed them towards the Afghan border, where they are targeted by Afghan military and US drone strikes. The initiative taken to coordinate the war effort seems to be bearing fruit with the Taliban finding themselves caught between a war on two fronts. Furthermore, the Taliban used contacts in the Pakistan military to sue for peace, emphasising the role they play in stabilizing Afghanistan.
Talks have failed several times previously but the dynamic is different this time. This time the government is in a position of power; unlike past times when it approached the Taliban in an effort to prevent all out war. As such we must push our demands, ask for complete disarmament and disclosure.
However, the Taliban have evolved into a loose group of scattered factions and the central leadership of Mullah Omar has almost eroded away completely – the Ameer-ul-Momineen himself hasn’t been seen in public for 14 years. Success hinges greatly on what kind of control he still exerts over the group. Even if he can command most factions, there still will be numerous factions and individual militants who would want to fight. A negotiated peace may not mean an end to the fighting. Splinter cells will remain active, especially with ISIS waiting in the wings to initiate them into its ranks and provide support. We must also be aware of the fact that negotiations have been used in the past as a gambit to consolidate forces, so we must proceed with caution and a set deadline for the agreement.