That Narendra Modi was going to be elected was anyone’s guess in Pakistan as it was in India. The thumping majority that the BJP got however, was unexpected for the experts and the party itself. NDTV rightly called it the Modi-fication of India. In Pakistan, Mr. Modi is known for his Hindutva agenda, his RSS backing and his supervision of the Gujarat pogrom of 2002 that killed around a thousand people including 800 Muslims. Considering the state apathy on minorities rights here, it seems the anger in Pakistan is not so much about violation of the rights of minorities, but centered on Muslims deaths. The support for Modi in India is not so much for killing Muslims but for his economic policies and, more importantly, his Indian nationalism.
In politics, one day can change dynamics massively. One year is a long time in politics and twelve years are an eternity. A decade is enough to ‘move on’ from the gory past if the benefits are as seductive as economic development, the creation of jobs, prosperity, modernity and national prestige that rests on strong muscular power. Getting rid of political corruption could be an equally attractive side-advantage; side advantage because something is ‘corruption’ for the middle class only if it doesn’t prove useful for it. And Mr. Modi is known for converting the downside and the disaster into his strength and opportunity.
For the Indian people, Congress has been too timid on foreign policy and thus was compromising proverbial ‘Indian pride.’ Congress provided the elections to BJP on a platter, it is said, for sheepishly handling the mega corruption scandals. There has also been an anti-Congress sentiment in sections of Indian society alleging it is using ‘secularism’ to suit its own political gains.
This can very well be a strong question on Congress credentials, keeping in view the fact that out of 65 years of India’s independent existence, this party has ruled India for more than five decades. Most of the pogroms against Muslims have happened during Congress rule whether it was the Babri Masjid demolition or Bombay, Bhagalpur and most recently, the Muzaffarnagar riots. Indian Muslims saw little to no efforts from the governments of the time to bring the culprits to justice.
This might explain why most of the Muslims in Gujrat and UP have voted for BJP or Hindu candidates from other parties. In Gujrat, where Muslims constitute 9% of the total population as the largest minority, BJP bagged all 26 seats with no Muslim winner. While in UP, with 24.5% Muslims overall and in some districts even 40%, not even one Muslim won Lok Sabha seat. Even the most promising Muslim candidate of BJP, Shahnawaz Hussain from Bhagalpur lost with a thin margin. The evidence irrefutably suggests that Muslims in even the Muslim-dense states of India voted for either BJP or for Hindus from other parties.
If Congress’s lack of Muslims’ protection and BJP’s successful play on pro-development rhetoric is put aside for a moment, much has to be blamed on Muslims’ own leadership in India that has proven over the decades to be highly incompetent, corrupt, selfish and short-sighted. According to most commentators in India, there is not one Muslim leader in India that could eloquently present the case for their community. They are known to instigate communal anger whenever it suits them while not raising the concerns of the Indian Muslim community.
To the surprise of most Pakistanis, Indian Muslims have proven to be more rigid on Indian nationalism. Even the firebrand leader of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Akbaruddin Owaisi from Andhra Pradesh, does not waste a minute strongly owning Indian nationalism. Owaisi, nevertheless, is considered to be communal among major sections of Indian society among both Hindus and Muslims. Speaking to a public rally, his elder brother, Asadudding Owaisi, the President of MIM was once reported for a potshot on Pakistanis worried about Indian Muslims saying, “They don’t need to think so much about us. Had they thought about us in 1947, they would not have left us.”
To make things worse for Muslim representation in Lok Sabha, a divided opposition to RSS-backed, communal reputed BJP further exacerbated all the above-mentioned factors. The so-called ‘secular’ parties divided the voters among assorted choices ranging from Congress to TNC, SWP, BSP and AAP. With these results, over a 20% population of India would be represented in the lower house of Parliament by a little over 4% members of their community. The ruling party, without a single Muslim member, poses a big question mark on Indian minorities’ representation in legislature. The question however, gets a bit diluted when the largest minority votes for candidates from the majority community. Is it their assertion of a larger Indian nationalism with disregard to communal lines or is it their systematic and engineered exclusion from the country’s governance machinery? This is a matter of further, meticulous analysis.
As part of a women’s rights movement, the encouraging part of recent Indian elections for me is an ever-increasing number of women in Parliament. The 16th Lok Sabha will have the highest number of women as its members i.e. a little over 11% of the lower house. In 1957, there were fewest women, i.e. 22 in the Lok Sabha, while in 1999, their number rose to 49. In 2004, the number went slightly down at 45 and in 2009, their number was highest thus far, at 58. Beating all records, the Lok Sabha now has 61 women who won the elections.
While recognizing the pitfalls of meaningful participation of women in the parliament of Pakistan having 19% parliamentary representation, a global citizen possessing a passport with whatever colour, has to press for a representative number of women in parliament corresponding to their total population in the country. In the 15th Lok Sabha, women’s quota seats have been a hot topic of debate over several sittings. Without getting enough parties on their side, women could not get this important affirmative measure to increase their representation. It is expected that the critical mass of women in the 16th Lok Sabha would be able to affect a positive change in the election and political parties representation laws for the gender based quota both in the parliament, in tickets awarded for contesting general elections and in political parties’ offices.
With lesser Muslims, more women, a communal past, a belligerent posture against Pakistan soaked in Hindutva rhetoric but a conspicuously pro-growth Modi-led parliament, there is going to be some impact on Pak-India relations. For his economic agenda, Modi is going to need smooth sailing on the foreign policy front and is most likely to capitalize on Mian Nawaz Sharif’s pro-trade countenance. The Pakistani intelligentsia and political community is however, making itself conspicuous with little to no objective analysis of Indian elections.
This indifference of Pakistan’s civil society and intelligentsia could be partly attributed to the general paranoia that surrounds us. Responding to my comments on the election results, most of the people on my Twitter opined I was tarnishing my ‘patriotic’ credentials by so meticulously watching India’s elections. There should be little doubt that the nature of peace initiatives pursued by Pakistan will be determined by who leads India and how.
Our judgment however, must be based on the current mien of India’s polity rather than the baggage it carries. Before worrying for India’s minorities, lets put our own house in order.

The writer is an Islamabad based defender of human rights and works on democratic governance.

Email:marvi@marvisirmed.com

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