Catalan separatists deal blow to Madrid

Marianne Barriaux, Serene Assiand Marine Laouchez – With their leaders in exile or jail, Catalan separatists scrambled Friday to reap the benefits of defeating Spain’s central government in a divisive regional election.

Madrid had called Thursday’s poll after secessionists declared independence on October 27, in Spain’s worst political crisis since democracy was reinstated following dictator Francisco Franco’s death in 1975.

The vote was widely seen as a moment of truth on Catalonia’s independence question, a hugely divisive issue for the wealthy northeast region, that has rattled a Europe already shaken by Brexit.

With the secessionists maintaining a majority in the Catalan parliament, the move to call snap polls appeared to backfire against Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who had sacked the regional government and dissolved its parliament.

Emboldened by his side’s win, ousted regional president Carles Puigdemont called on Rajoy to hold talks in Brussels, where he has sought self-imposed exile, or anywhere else in Europe – barring Spain, where he faces arrest.

He also called on the European Union, which has so far sided with Rajoy in the crisis, to hear out the independence camp.

“I only demand to the European Commission or other European institutions, to listen, to listen to the Catalan people, not only the Spanish state,” he told reporters in Brussels.

The appeal was in line with his strategy throughout the crisis, positioning himself as an equal to the Spanish prime minister and seeking recognition from the international community.

‘Lengthy and contentious’

But Puigdemont’s appeal fell, once again, on deaf ears.

In Madrid, Rajoy rejected the call to meet, as he warned the new Catalan government should fully respect the law. And in Brussels, a European Commission spokesperson who asked not to be named said: “Our position on the Catalan issue is well known… As it is a regional election, we have no comment to make.”

Puigdemont’s Together for Catalonia list secured the best result of the three separatist groupings.

How the independence camp intends to rule remains a mystery, however.

Puigdemont faces charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of funds in Spain. Other independence leaders, including Puigdemont’s former deputy Oriol Junqueras, are behind bars pending trial.

And a Spanish judge on Friday expanded a probe into the secessionist bid to include another six independence leaders, including former regional president Artur Mas, in a written ruling seen by AFP.

To govern together, the three separatist lists must reach an agreement after running on separate tickets with key candidates making acrimonious accusations against each other.

“A brutal confrontation took place, a fight to the death, within the separatist camp,” Oriol Bartomeus of Barcelona Autonomous University told AFP.

Nonetheless, analysts expect the separatists will probably manage to bridge their differences and avoid having to hold yet another poll.

“A pro-independence minority government is likely to form comprising all three pro-separatist parties,” said Federico Santi, a researcher with the Eurasia Group consultancy.

“The process will be lengthy and contentious given the self-exiled and imprisoned deputies.”

Catalonia divided

Separatist leaders said the vote had helped legitimise their cause, but analysts predicted a softening around the edges of the independence bid.

The Catalan business elite, some of whose members have close links with Puigdemont’s party, “know that they have to give a fresh boost to tourism and the economy”, sociologist Narciso Michavila told AFP.

At stake in the crisis is the economy of a region that has seen its tourism sector suffer and more than 3,100 companies – including the largest banks, utilities and insurers – move their legal headquarters out of Catalonia.

Ratings agency Moody’s described the secessionists’ win as “credit negative” for both Catalonia and Spain.

“Continued uncertainty will lead to a further deterioration of the business environment,” it said in a statement.

Divided region

In an indicator of the gulf over independence afflicting Catalan society, anti-secessionist centrist party Ciudadanos won the biggest individual result with 37 of the 135 seats in the regional parliament.

Unless the three pro-independence lists fail to clinch a deal to work together in the coming months, however, they will govern Catalonia with 70 seats – just two less than their previous tally.

Ciudadanos’s candidate Ines Arrimadas saw the glass half-full for the anti-independence side.

The fragmented vote result shows Spain and the world “that here in Catalonia there has never been a secessionist majority”, she told reporters.

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