The government’s decision to slowly move towards relaxing the import restrictions it put into place to try and control the current account deficit is the right thing to do, considering that growing the economy after steadying the ship was the stated aim of the current cabinet. However, whether the cut down in imports had a major effect on the import balance is still questionable.

Our reliance on fuel and food imports entails that the current account balance can only be righted if we increase exports, or increase the value of the Pak Rupee. The only other factor which helps us is international prices—of oil products, food or even the US dollar—if one of these fall, Pakistan’s import balance sees some welcome relief. While the Rupee has continued its downward slide due to the ongoing political conflict, international fuel prices provided some modicum of relief in this past month.

The next step in the equation looks to be providing industries with a stable and regular energy supply for them to be able to produce commodities for export. The government has also indicated that it expects foreign exchange injections from friendly countries—as much as $3 billion—which could help make import payments a little smoother going forward.

While a ban on any imports is never ideal—it is clear that our failure to even cater to our commodity needs in Pakistan is leading us to economic ruin. A ban such as the one imposed by the government should be followed by a move to make industries fill the gap—import substitution is the only long-term means to reduce our current account deficit. While the government is looking to encourage production, there is no move to target specific industries—especially those in which the demand for finished goods is met through imports. Unless we move in that direction, our import dependence will continue to be high and there will be no attempt at real and lasting localisation.