Recently, India, as an upper riparian state, has halted the flow of the Ravi River into Pakistan, heightening concerns regarding agricultural and humanitarian issues in Pakistan. This can lead to the opening of another conflict zone between the two countries. Amidst the challenges posed by the worsening climate change situation in South Asia, these water problems can diminish the prospects of a normal bilateral relationship between Pakistan and India.
In the 1960s, the World Bank mediated the signing of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan, halting the decade-long water dispute between the two conflicting neighbors. The IWT has stood the test of time, surviving wars and diplomatic tensions for more than six decades. However, in February 2024, India completely halted the flow of the Ravi River to Pakistan after the construction of the Shahpur Kandi Barrage project. Under the IWT, the three eastern rivers, Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas, were allocated to India, the upper riparian state, and the three western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, were allocated to Pakistan, the lower riparian state. The construction of the Shahpur Kandi Barrage by India and the blocking of the Ravi River flow will have severe ecological, social, and strategic repercussions for Pakistan.
Agriculture stands as the primary means of livelihood and subsistence for almost half of the Pakistani population, with nearly 45% of the labor force directly and indirectly associated with this sector. Any attempt to undermine it would jeopardize well-being, living standards, employment, and other crucial areas of life. Moreover, 70% of Pakistan’s agricultural land is concentrated in Punjab. Pakistani cities bearing the brunt of India’s strategic decision include Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, and Gujranwala, which rely heavily on the Ravi River. Water scarcity in industrial cities like Sialkot, Sheikhupura, and Narowal, and agricultural hubs and urban centers like Sahiwal and Bahawalpur, could pose serious socio-economic challenges to these areas.
The Ravi River holds profound strategic implications for the simmering conflictual bilateral relationship between India and Pakistan. Sanjay Dixit, Additional Chief Secretary to the Government of Rajasthan, has characterized Pakistan as being embroiled in a three-front war. He also highlighted that the Afghan government is reaching out to Indian counterparts regarding the construction of dams on the Kabul and Kurram rivers, which contribute 50% of water to the Indus River, potentially a move aimed at coercive diplomacy. This water crisis has added another layer of complexity to the geopolitical dynamics of the South Asian region.
Disruption of water flow from India not only jeopardizes the agrarian landscape of Pakistan but also aggravates the humanitarian crisis in regions heavily reliant on the Ravi as their primary water source. The river plays a pivotal role in sustaining agriculture, providing drinking water, and sanitation, and fulfilling various essential needs like providing food security to around 110 million people in Punjab.
The international community has responded to the situation with varying degrees of involvement. The United Nations has called for both countries to resolve the dispute through negotiations and dialogues. The World Bank has also been involved, providing technical assistance. However, the need of the hour is to address the underlying causes of the dispute by taking significant proactive measures. In 2023, India had sent a notice to Pakistan to modify the IWT.
The BJP, seeking popular support, has consistently used anti-Pakistan sentiments. Tracing back to the tactics of the RSS against partition in the 1950s, the BJP follows the same line, using Uri and Pulwama in their respective election campaigns. In 2016, Modi and his various allies had referred to stopping every drop of water flowing into Pakistan. As the 2024 General Elections loom ahead, the BJP aims to use this water dispute to seek popular support from eastern states like Punjab. Water sharing has always been a source of interstate conflict within India. Even in 1948, it was from Punjab that water flow to Pakistan was disturbed. By suspending the water flow of the Ravi into Pakistan, the BJP aims to garner political support in the upcoming elections.
To conclude, the Ravi River dispute highlights the complex interplay of geopolitical, environmental, and humanitarian factors that have far-reaching implications for regional stability and socio-economic security. Indian domestic politics and the strategy to damage Pakistan’s socio-economic fabric have further complicated the situation. In this context, the two countries need to strictly implement the clauses and provisions of the IWT. In this hostile environment, it would be difficult for the two countries to renegotiate and modify the treaty in a way that is acceptable to both. India’s attempt to halt Ravi River water flow should be a wake-up call for Pakistan.
Shafaq Zernab and Muhammad Ahmad Khan
Shafaq Zernab is a Research Intern at India Study Centre, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. Muhammad Ahmad Khan is a Research Associate at India Study Centre, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.