Shaikh Hasina Wajid’s fifteen-year reign in Bangladesh (BD) came to a rather sudden, unceremonious end. The people, led by their dynamic student community, rose in protest against her autocratic, authoritarian, and despotic rule forcing her to flee to her obvious safe haven, India. Her rule was overtly India-centric allowing it aggressive, intrusive, at times even controlling ingress into sensitive governance, policy formulation, and decision-making fora. Shaikh Hasina Wajid’s ouster has created a vacuum of massive proportions in the geopolitics of the region at large. Major powers like India, China and the US are now scrambling to acquire advantageous geopolitical positions. Pakistan’s interest in BD has got an immense boost, too!
Located in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean BD is extremely well placed to play a prominent role in the Chinese BRI. Both are already in a Comprehensive Cooperative Partnership and members of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) forum for Regional Cooperation. 97% of BD’s exports to China are duty free. China has offered to construct nuclear power plants and develop gas fields/resources in BD as well. It has invested heavily in developing sorely needed infrastructure by constructing numerous roads, bridges and power plants. It has constructed a port in Chittagong making it a part of the Maritime Silk Route as well as the “Shaikh Hasina Naval Base”, at Cox’s Bazaar. This naval base gives BD enormous strategic advantages and can accommodate six submarines and eight warships. China has even supplied BD with two submarines. 72% of BD’s defence requirements, weapon systems and equipment are of Chinese origin. BD and China continue to maintain a very robust multidimensional relationship.
On the other hand, the US happens to be BD’s biggest investor and its largest export market as well. As a global power, it has unequivocal strategic interests in BD. Shaikh Hasina Wajid made a statement, after she had escaped to India, that a foreign power had wanted her to hand over the St Martin’s Island to it in exchange for a continuous, uninterrupted rule. She reportedly refused and as a result, as per her assertion, she was ousted from power. St Martin’s Island is a 3 km square island about 9 kms away from BD’s southern tip and 8 kms away from Myanmar. An air-naval-missile base here would dominate the Bay of Bengal as well as oversee the SLOCs and global East-West trade through the Indian Ocean and most critically, through the Malacca Straits. That force could also monitor BD and Myanmar and keep a vigil over India as well as China. This makes the St Martin’s Island a contentious issue with Indian, Chinese and US interests clashing fiercely over it. BD is located in a very strategically important region and the US would be wary of leaving it entirely to China’s or even India’s dominance and influence. It will remain closely interested and engaged.
India, will clearly see the ouster of Shaikh Hasina as a disastrous diplomatic and intelligence failure and a stinging loss of face on the geopolitical plane. It had invested very heavily in the then East Pakistan and then later in BD. However, her so-called BD project appears to have imploded badly. Its protege has lost and its ostensible grip on BD and its affairs has been lost too. There is a wave of strident independence, strategic autonomy and anti-India sentiment pulsating throughout BD. India is likely to react viciously to forestall and pre-empt all moves by China, the US and even Pakistan at the geopolitical and diplomatic levels. India is presently quite isolated in the larger South Asian region with Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan etc all slipping out of its sphere of influence. BD worsens it.
Pakistan must take advantage of the vacuum that has been created by the departure of Shaikh Hasina and India’s waning influence in BD. Nuclear Pakistan and BD could view this crisis as an opportunity to renew, revive, reinforce and further cement a genuine, multidimensional, fraternal relationship. Their nexus could yet redefine the geopolitics of the larger South Asian Region along with the concomitant geostrategic implications. Their partnership could become meaningful, decisive and potentially reform power politics in the region for good. Together they could help forge a strategic balance that deters and secures all peoples from aggressive, external influences. They could become a force to play a positive role in the region. The desire and will to do so perhaps exists on both sides. Even China could support it. Communication channels therefore must be fearlessly opened to that end. Both governments must pay heed to popular proclivities. Pakistan must engage BD’s interim government immediately, and wholesomely and offer all forms of diplomatic, technological, trade, technological, military etc support. Bilateral visits by the Foreign Ministers of both countries could set the ball rolling. People-to-people contacts, especially between politicians and civil society must be facilitated and encouraged through visa free visits. Both countries must conclude a free trade agreement ASAP and establish direct links between their economies. They could even agree to conduct all trade in their respective currencies. Scholarship programs for students from both countries must be launched post haste. Cultural ties must be restored and sports competitions expanded. Militaries could play a cardinal role in improving relations through exchange visits, training, joint exercises, courses, study periods, seminars etc. Pakistan has a vibrant arms and munitions production industry. It could become a steady, reliable, competent source to meet most of BD’s requirements.
Nuclear Pakistan and BD must revive their brotherhood. They both must realize - united they stood tall, proud, strong, undefeated; divided, they fell! No more. The divisive forces must be countered decisively. Can both overcome their unhappy past and march lockstep into a bright, shared future?
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.comand tweets@K846Im.