Sharif the next Prime Minister is the sentiment being built by the rowdy supporters of the ruling party after winning the recent Lodhran by polls.
Losing a seat in the stronghold – just three months prior to elections – may be a stunning reversal of hopes for Tehreek Insaaf –but despite abashing defeat, it can still learn from mistakes.
The defeat by over 26000 votes - from a less known PML-N candidate- is no doubt alarming but may not be a true reflection of up-coming general elections.
If not many, few things would definitely change before the general elections, during the interim set up. There could be numerous possibilities which may arise and may turn the tables upside down. But in order to benefit from those opportunities, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf, need to do some soul-searching.
In today’s deeply polarised politics, interpreting election result sans political prejudice and disinterest is a challenge.
Yes, poor planning, over-confidence, lack of coordination and failure to mobilisse voters are some of the obvious reasons for the PTI’s loss in NA-154 but there are some -beyond the scope factors -too.
It is true that the foreign educated- self-consciously unshowy lad– son of second most powerful man in PTI - failed to build any narrative or brand during his political campaign – despite his all bragging – and desperate moves. However, his defeat exposed some deep-rooted flaws at the party level, for instance, the absence of any collective narrative or branding.
Political Pundits stress the need to control the narrative. Even the most incremental event of any campaign is parsed for narrative significance.
During his recent pre-poll speech in Lodhran, PTI chief, Imran Khan mentioned the arrest of Abid Boxer and his alleged nexus with Sharif brothers, if Khan thinks extrajudicial killing is the major problem of Southern Punjab, and on the basis of which he can get votes- he needs to re-visit his whole political discourse.
Other than Abid boxer, Khan spent more than half hour on mudslinging and maligning Sharif brothers- instead of telling people how their lives would be transformed if they elect Ali Tareen.
Clarke Rountree in his book Venomous Speech, wrote that most voters consider attacks on policy to be fair and attacks on character to be unfair. He believe candidates who attack more on policy and less on character are more likely to win elections. In local politics also, continuous mudslinging on opponents cannot help in winning elections.
Interestingly, PTI has no realization that after inducting large influx of so -called electable - the conventional politicians -with huge baggage of corruption in its own ranks -bashing on opponents on same corruption charges – becomes more daunting.
PTI mistakenly take number of people in rallies as its popularity gauge. People simply come to see charismatic Imran Khan. They need to be turned into voters by making some promises - or telling the story of achievements.
If change is still the only narrative educated voters want to know what his PTI’s road map to change is; how it will pull the country out of the deep economic crisis and prevailing challenges on local and international front. What is his road map to prosperity?
To win rural vote party needs to penetrate at grass root level. Corruption is meaningless for the most of the suppressed rural population making compromises to secure bread for their family. Does PTI have die hard ideological workers who could penetrate and mobilise voters.
PTI’s opponent, PML-N, on the other hand, has been building successful narratives. During last general elections PML-N head Nawaz Sharif enthusiastically told public that his party would transform Pakistan into a modern and developed country if the people voted him to power.
PML-N won the last election on promise of providing bullet train and massive development projects across the country- while PTI’s Chief Imran Khan was busy selling gimmick of new Pakistan and change - a slogan very blurry to many.
After five years, PTI is repeating the same mistake. It is repeating his same old mantra of corruption while PML-N intelligently recovered from disqualification episode by terming it a conspiracy against democracy.
Khan equally, did not seem to conceive, that in today’s world, where world powers watch their interests very closely, especially in this region, what would be the next foreign policy of Pakistan worries many.
In his recent interview to CNN, Imran Khan failed to come up with any impressive answer to most of the questions, especially what he would do if he became Prime Minister.
Khan need to understand difference between addressing a charged rally of supporters and international audience. Undiplomatic loose words may create problems not only for the party but also for the country and establishment.
His recent interviews to foreign media further stamped him an inflexible hardliner who may not be trusted with a nuclear button.
PML-N on other hand is not only seems successful in dealing with the world powers and regional players- but the party’s strategy after the disqualification also seems to yield some results.
Thanks to the local lobbyists of the world powers Nawaz Sharif and his lieutenants has been successfully labeled as a pure democrat fighting to free the country from the clutches of undemocratic forces.
PML-N successfully used Khan’s every mistake for its own gain, building a public opinion that Khan is a big mouth non-serous unpractical person who failed to bring any change in KP.
Today many see him as a non-serious, soulless, selfish, rightist and desperate to become Prime Minister. PML-N is already organising its ranks and in coming days when PML-N will start selling its development projects, what success story from KP, PTI have to tell.
PPP factor, witnessed in the Balochistan recently, do have potential to create any setback in upcoming elections. What is PTI’s strategy to deal with it?
Now in a short span of few months, can PTI make a comeback, can it defeat experienced PML-N in Punjab, can a new and strong narrative or branding help Imran Khan winning premiership, in present scenario the possibilities are rare, however, any mistake from PML-N, any internal rift, the religious factor, any court decision against PML-N leadership or help from PTI sympathisers in establishment –some more electables- may turn the game in favour of PTI, if it take care of its flaws now.