LAHORE - Pakistan is anticipated to be among the top 20 drivers of growth by 2024, according to a Bloomberg report based on the estimates published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF forecast also includes China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Bangladesh from the Asian countries. China’s growth rate is expected to continue to slow, and will be a smaller driver to global GDP growth in the near term. China’s share of global GDP growth is expected to fall from 32.7% in 2018-2019 to 28.3% by 2024 a relatively steep 4.4 percentage point reduction.
Weaker global growth, expected to fall to 3% this year and the slowest since the global financial crisis, will affect 90% of the world, according to estimates released this week by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF said new growth engines among the top 20 countries in five years will include Turkey, Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, while Spain, Poland, Canada and Vietnam drop out of the first 20. The U.S., while still expected to contribute a sizable portion to world growth, is projected to fall to third place, after India. America’s share of global growth is expected to slip from 13.8% to 9.2% by 2024, while India’s share is projected to rise to 15.5% and eclipse the U.S. over this five-year period. Indonesia will remain in the fourth spot as its economy is expected to have a 3.7% growth share in 2024, a slight downward adjustment from 3.9% in 2019. The U.K. will see its importance wane amid Brexit as its economy drops from ninth as a share of world growth in 2019, to 13th. Although world GDP growth attributable to Russia is at 2% now and expected to stay there in five years, the country is likely to displace Japan as the number five growth contributor. Japan will fall to the ninth spot by 2024. Brazil is projected to move up from No. 11 to No. 6. Germany’s share of growth is expected to remain at 1.6% and 7th on the list.
Where will growth come from in 2024?
China 28.3%
India 15.5%
United States of America 9.2%
Indonesia 3.7%
Russia 2.0%
Brazil 1.8%
Germany 1.6%
Turkey 1.6%
Japan 1.6%
Egypt 1.5%
Pakistan, Mexico, United Kingdom, 11.70%
France, Saudi Arabia, South Korea,
Bangladesh, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand
All other countries 21.50%
