Pak-Afghan relations

General Mirza Aslam Beg President Barack Obamas first and second AfPak strategy failed and now the third strategy, which is to extricate from Afghanistan, will be finalised in a conference to be held on March 24, 2010, in Washington. Giving the details of the new strategy, British Foreign Minister David Miliband said: The objective is to build a self-governing but a heavily subsidised Afghanistan. Subsequently, Richard C Holbrooke, Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan under the Obama administration, stressed on the importance of neighbouring countries and a non-centralised Afghan State because the way forward is to work more with the tribes in a more decentralised Afghanistan. And Pakistan apparently endorsed this strategy and hopes to gain some strategic advantages from it. Unfortunately, Pakistan since independence has failed to evolve a pragmatic Afghan policy. Predominantly for the last 30 years, it has followed a policy subordinated to the US interests. In this context, General Ziaul Haq supported the American war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan; however, he was later abandoned by the US administration to experience the painful fallout of the Afghan quagmire. Further General Musharraf, without a second thought, accepted all the conditionalities forced on him and decided to join the American war on Afghanistan with no moral or legal justification. As a result, Pakistan has continued to suffer the consequences of such jerky decisions and has been forced to fight the war on reversed fronts. As if this was not enough, the Pakistan government now has decided to support the AfPak exit strategy, worked out by President Hamid Karzai and approved by the Americans at the meeting in Maldives held last month. This meeting envisaged a government comprising Karzai supporters, the Northern Alliance and some Taliban dissidents, under the leadership of Mustafa Zahir Shah. However, President Karzai is hoping to gain the approval of this set-up through a loe jirga that he will be calling next month. Surprisingly, the groundwork has already been laid to implement the Maldives Plan. On all counts, Pakistan has already started delivering brick-by-brick demolition of jihadi infrastructure. At the same time, Washington has given its endorsement of Pakistans genuine interests in Afghanistan and the assurances that the US would not walk away from Pakistan andguarantee Pakistans political and economic interests in the region. In order to motivate Pakistan to disengage its forces from the eastern borders and move them to its northwestern border, the US is making efforts to defuse Pak-India tensions by inducing a 'composite dialogue and perhaps be telling the Indian administration to curtail its notorious activities in Afghanistan, which are a major cause of concern to Pakistan. Indeed, the stage is ready to establish a new unit in Afghanistan, minus the Taliban, who control 33 out of 35 provinces. Thus, repeating the mistake made in 1989-90, of abandoning the mujahideen that created a mess in Afghanistan and continues to afflict the entire region. It is interesting to see that the American policymakers having realised the shift in Pakistans policy are now frequently visiting both Islamabad and Kabul. Recently President Karzai also visited Islamabad; followed by ex-DG ISIs visit to Saudi Arabia and now the foreign minister and the COAS will be visiting Washington for the meeting to be held on March 24. Apparently there seem to be an urgency to actualise the Maldives Plan, whereas the Taliban are discreetly watching this game and appear so calm, cool and collected in their scheme of things waiting for the occupation forces to leave Afghanistan so that they can demolish the Maldives Plan - bit by bit - and establish their rule. Once again Afghanistan will be plunged into turmoil and a second front will be opened with no guarantees for Pakistan. The Washington conference therefore is not a peace conference either. In fact, it is a search for an easier and less expensive American war and to extricate ourselves from our burden. Pakistan also appears to be willing to implement the Maldives Plan without any understanding with the Afghan Taliban. Nevertheless, the Taliban are the real arbiters of the destiny of the people of Afghanistan and must not be kept out of the plan designed for 'peace. Undoubtedly, the Pakistan army has been able to establish the writ of the government along the entire border region, including FATA, and for the first time our borders with Afghanistan have acquired strategic significance. The integrity of our borders therefore must be maintained, only when we are at peace with the future government in Kabul that will be none else than the government by the Taliban who control 90 percent of Afghanistan. Therefore, Pakistan has a clear choice either to have a friendly neighbour and peaceful borders or a hostile Afghanistan and face two-front war like situation. There exists a serious 'trust deficit between the Afghan Taliban and the US, and also with the Pakistan government, as Pakistan later joined the USAs war against Afghanistan in 2001. Hence, a majority of the Afghan Taliban consider Pakistan as their enemy, while the Pakistani Taliban narrate the story of betrayal by the Musharraf regime, not once, but several times. Their minds are also being polluted by the Indian tirade of accesses of the Pakistani army in Swat, Bajaur and Waziristan areas. They have no trust in the present government either. Here the question is, who has the courage and the ability to break the 'trust deficit, engage in dialogue with the Taliban on both sides of the border and negotiate peace. This is the dilemma facing all the stakeholders in Afghanistan. Without triggering bigger chaotic conditions, and to avoid terrifying prospects of defeat, it must be understood that neither extra troops, not extra aid, not more hugs - not slugs counterinsurgency nonsense, is the answer (Ralf Peters). The geopolitical and geo-strategic environment of Afghanistan of the next decade will be determined by the converging interests of its neighbours, i.e. Russia, China, Iran, the Central Asian States and the United States of America. If we are looking for peace in Afghanistan, we have to accommodate the interests of others. And therefore, Pakistan needs to recalibrate its position on Afghan. It means harmonising Pakistans geo-strategic interests with Afghanistan and regional neighbours and real accommodation of some US and NATO interests. The writer is a former COAS, Pakistan. Email: friendsfoundation@live.co.uk

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