An exit strategy for US

DR VED PRATAP VAIDIK This is my third trip to the US since Obama has been elected as president. Never before have I seen so much concern and debate on Afghanistan as I saw during this trip. I was invited by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies to a Conference on Space, which was not connected even remotely to Afghanistan. After delivering the inaugural address, when I got down from the dais, dozens of political analysts surrounded me because I was introduced as basically an expert on Afghanistan and a political thinker. Several officials of the Obama Administration and almost everybody who met me in Washington DC asked only one question - can America get out of the quagmire of Afghanistan? In reply to this cardinal question, I have devised a five-point strategy. One: Obama should not send more soldiers to Afghanistan. He must also announce a definite date for the withdrawal of his army from the troubled region. In my opinion this deadline should be December 31, 2010. Of course, this withdrawal would also include all the foreign soldiers belonging to ISAF. Undoubtedly, this announcement will improve America's image and it will be Obama's second victory in one year. Moreover, if the US/NATO forces leave Afghanistan, the Taliban will automatically lose their rationale to operate. Two: If all the foreign forces leave Afghanistan within a year the question is, would the Karzai government survive? Will anarchy not spread in Afghanistan? Certainly, it will. So what are the options? At least a National Army of half a million Afghan soldiers and a police force should be raised immediately. This is because the expenses incurred on inducting five million youth to the army will be less than the expenses of maintaining just five thousand soldiers of any western country in Afghanistan. Moreover, if we need to immediately step up the fighting and strength of the present national army set up, instead of sending new soldiers from the western countries, the friendly Asian and African countries can be approached to do the needful. Three: Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of opium. If they clamp down on illegal wealth obtained through opium, the Karzai government cannot only break the back of the militants, but can also get rid of many rogue politicians. Four: There is no control or accountability of the billions of dollars that pour into Afghanistan. Karzai himself had shared with me this fact a few months ago that in Kabul his government has control on only four percent of the total foreign aid that comes into his country. The remaining 96 percent is reserved for the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT), a unit introduced by the US to support reconstruction efforts in unstable states, which operates on its own. And the central government has very little say in their functioning. Not only the foreign aid but also the overall control over foreign troops and their operations should be in the hands of the central government of Afghanistan. Five: The dialogue with the Taliban should be conducted by the Afghans and not the Americans. If this strategy is implemented, the US can rescue itself from the quagmire of Afghanistan. While putting this strategy into action, the policy makers may face several new questions. While implementing this exit strategy, if the image of the Afghan government is not built as all-powerful and sovereign body, chances of success would appear to be bleak. To bolster the image of the incumbent Afghan government it is absolutely imperative that Karzai take a drastic and exemplary action against corruption. If need be, he might have to sideline some of his close friends and relatives even if it is meant to placate the public opinion. The writer is a freelance columnist based in New Delhi. Email: dr.vaidik@gmail.com

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