As the United States approaches its November 5 presidential election, all eyes around the world are watching to see how this shapes one of the most important bilateral relations of the 21st century — the US and China. The tense and complex relationship between both countries has the potential to affect global security, economy, and politics. This election is significant, but it is also evident that no matter who wins, it is unlikely to see any changes in US-China relations.
The cynicism grows out of the simple fact that both sides are moving towards what could be accurately described as a hawkish stance on China: The Democrats, consistent with their traditional approach towards China, and Trump, aiming to win for re-election. With anti-China sentiment strong across Washington, neither side wants to look friendly or even conciliatory towards Beijing. This is just the latest iteration of a reorientation that started long before Donald Trump waged trade war -- and has only grown more pronounced under Biden. Every administration has done its part to elevate the consensus that China is foremost competitor of US.
Taiwan is the most prominent flashpoint in this rivalry. The contentious relationship between the US and Taiwan has come to dominate headlines during Trump's presidency, which saw a sweeping boost in arms sales to Taipei and increased military cooperation. This policy has persisted under Biden, provoking protest from Beijing which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and a core issue of its sovereignty. Nevertheless, both Republicans and Democrats in Congress remain intent on strengthening Taiwan’s defences — even if it means going toe-to-toe with China.
This continuity across administrations signals to Beijing that there is no significant difference in US policy between one party or another. The Republicans take a more openly aggressive stance on China in their rhetoric and policies, while the Democrats use diplomatic language but nonetheless stake out similar hardline positions. Such an opinion, also widely held by Chinese analysts these days exposes a consensus understanding here that the Washington view of China has slid from competitive to confrontational. This, in turn, implies that Beijing must now contemplate a future of greater friction with the US — one it would need to manage under either Republican or Democratic president.
Perceptions towards China have significantly darkened in the US over recent years. From trade to technology and security—China now evokes mistrust and suspicion. This feeling has been reinforced under Trump, whose administration kicked off a trade war with Beijing that drove tariffs on Chinese goods higher and followed up with measures to try limit the rise of China in technology. Although Biden administration has at first been more diplomatic — signalling a desire to rebuild multilateral approaches undertaken by the US global commitment before him, he largely continued down on such confrontation with new fronts open for technology transfer restrictions and trade measures that fragment regional and even western-aligned supply chains.
Beijing has consistently made it clear that it has seen the two countries as potential partners to tackle global issues, including climate change and economic stability on top of a pandemic response. To this end, they say that China's rise is not to sabotage the international order but help it grow by multilateralism and win-win cooperation. Beijing has repeatedly said it was looking to peacefully coexist with Washington. However, this perception seems ever more divorced from the central reality in US: a newly bipartisan consensus around China as main threat to American hegemony in sustaining world order.
For China, this notion is not expected to change with the result of upcoming US election. On one side is Donald Trump, whose previous administration implemented wide range of tariffs and a trade war that threw not only US-China relations but also world trade flows into disarray. Although Trump said he implemented these measures to reign in the historic trade deficit with China, industries across both nations took a massive hit because of this economic collateral damage. And if Trump were to return to power, it is entirely possible that his administration would reintroduce the same tariffs — inviting even more inflation and chipping away at global economic recovery.
On the other side is Kamala Harris, who has engaged in reinforcing the US’s stance on China under Biden administration. She endorsed many of Biden's policies to strengthen ties with Asian allies in order to contain the growing influence of China. Her policies, a more-than-probable continuation if she were to be become president would not differ considerably from Biden.
That being the case, China knows the US policies towards them are not going to change anytime soon, and the US election result will not make any difference.
Another factor that complicates the bilateral relations is the growing competition between both nations is the Asia-Pacific region. The US wants to contain China’s rise by actively engaging with the countries of this region whereas, China expands economic ties with them. These countries often find themselves navigating a delicate balance between the two powers.
Ultimately, the reality is that tension in US-China relations could be sustained over an extended period. Be it a Republican or Democratic administration, this hostility is likely to shape and frame global geopolitics in the foreseeable future. For China, this election is not about choosing between different options but realizing that both options lead to same result— a future of strained and competitive bilateral relations. Thus, it is certain that China-US relations will continue to be marked by competition and mutual mistrust.