Flood refugees a threat to political stability

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Millions of people forced to flee their homes by countrys worst-ever floods may emerge as the most explosive issue for a feeble government in the wake of a disaster that will strain the economy for years to come. Pakistan was already under growing pressure to deal with over one million people displaced by fighting between the army and Taliban militants in the northwest. Now it has to devise a comprehensive strategy to tackle a wider crisis - 10 million people displaced by the floods - that could create political instability. If these people are not somehow accommodated and their issues are not addressed in terms of basic shelter, basic food, medical care and rehabilitation and in terms of livelihood, then we are looking at potentially large social unrest, said Kamran Bokhari, South Asia director at STRATFOR global intelligence. Dislocation by itself can bring down states and governments, in theory. To tackle the problem, the cash-strapped government has to come up with vast funds, work out complicated logistics and, most importantly, prove it can take charge after the military did most of the heavy lifting during flood relief and rescue operations. Analysts say that while a army-led coup is highly unlikely, the military may feel inclined to take measured action if the govt completely fails to help those displaced by the floods, especially since the Taliban could recruit flood victims who give up on the state. In a situation of crisis when the civilian government loses legitimacy, it may be easy for the military to either manipulate the government from the sidelines, or indirectly bring in its own men to replace the government, said political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi. Speculation has been swirling for weeks about the fate of the government, with rumours about over everything from a military coup to a motion of no confidence. What is clear, said Ahmed Rashid, an expert on regional militancy and politics, is that the army is fed up with the govt and is getting very impatient. The International Crisis Group think tank said in a report the floods have turned displacement into a national disaster of mammoth proportions and urged the government to handle it. Given the scale of the needs, there may be a temptation among donors to circumvent civilian structures and work directly with the military to deliver aid, but this would be a dangerous choice, says Samina Ahmed, its South Asia Project Director.

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