Indeed, Pakistan is struggling to revive its $350 billion dollar economy. Due to the just concluded IMF program, the economy experienced slight stability as inflation came down drastically from 38 per cent to 17 per cent. Controlling external account deficit through an import control mechanism was a desperate move. It worked but came at a heavy price - a staggering growth that is expected to be two per cent this year. Presently, the country is dealing with a high fiscal shortfall and a tough IMF conditions-based future program. The situation is precarious, to say the least. Add into it the rise of the dollar to Rs 300 by end-December and you have a real problem at hand. Is another scare of ‘default’ awaiting us? Meanwhile, the debate on political uncertainty and economic stability continues.
Let’s stop here for a minute and visualize if the present government could enable the country to stand on its economic feet, say in the next two to three years, without first bringing sanity in the political domain, if at all it stays in power for that long. The present coalition government is trying hard to stabilize the country’s economy mainly through privatization, expanding the tax net and attracting huge FDIs. Since miracles have stopped occurring in the present age of Artificial Intelligence, it would not be possible for Islamabad to ‘discover’ the desired economic stability any time soon. The reason is twofold. One, the economic recovery is being addressed through political handles. Two, it is an accepted fact that in the absence of good and honest governance, no development is sustainable.
Ironically, no one seems to be interested in addressing more important related issues. Suppose the government, supported by angels and fairies, achieves the ‘economic targets’, and the country’s economy is ‘recovered’ by a stroke of miracle; will it bring prosperity to the already prosperous elite, or the common man will benefit from it as well? Another crucial question: how will the country produce honest and upright administrators overnight to run the day-to-day affairs of the State, and more importantly, for the welfare of the people of Pakistan?
To move forward in his economic pursuits, PM Sharif has taken charge of the ECNEC, relieving the ‘competent’ Finance Minister of one of his primary tasks, reportedly to utilize the Deputy PM’s expertise in financial matters. The PM has also constituted an eight-member Economic Advisory Council (EAC), a non-constitutional, independent body, to advise him on economic issues of national significance. Was there any need of forming yet another advisory body? The library is filled with several development strategies including Vision 2025, Vision 2030, various five-year plans, and a host of other reports that are aimed at putting the country’s economy back on track. The State Bank of Pakistan, SECP and even some line Ministries have chipped in with some concrete proposals on financial management and governance.
So, why the EAC? There could be three reasons. One: The government does not have the time to evaluate the existing strategies and reports. Two: The government does not have the capacity or will to work on long-term objectives. Three: As it must show ‘performance’ to those who have placed it in the power corridors, meaning, the people of Pakistan, the government has done what any government does in any Third World country i.e. if you don’t want to do something – constitute a new body.
That brings us to six important ifs, the country is faced with right now. Due to space constraints, four ifs relating to the judiciary, foreign policy, security, and governance cannot be elaborated here. The remaining two relate to politics and economy. Here they are…!!
Looking at the ongoing political deadlock, political stability is possible if Parliament is dissolved forthwith; the general elections are announced and fair & free elections are held by a truly independent Election Commission; all political prisoners are released to take part in political activities in a democratically free environment; all stakeholders genuinely work towards upholding the sterling principles of democracy; and, the people of Pakistan suddenly become aware of their rights and obligations before exercising their right to vote.
Wait a minute…!! This is too ambitious. Wrong assumptions. Looks like the opposition’s wish list. A democratically elected government is already in place. All provincial assemblies except the one in KPK are functioning properly. In its first hundred days in power, the government has shown promising signs in all areas of governance. The country has no space for traitors. Hence, those who committed crimes must face the consequences. The country’s future is bright. We will bring economic prosperity if allowed to govern the country for a full term.
Now the economy. Pakistan can achieve the desired economic stability if all plans and strategies envisaged for this purpose are implemented in letter and spirit; the government is able to cut its expenditure to half; the rich pay their taxes and utility bills; the tax to GDP ratio is at least twelve percent; inflation is in single digit; all IPPs are gone; SIFC has over a hundred billion dollars in the kitty; CPEC mega project succeeds; all SOEs are privatized; the word ‘subsidy’ is no more in use; IMF is history; the country is corruption free; bureaucracy delivers; the truly Sadiq & Ameen leadership does not mix economy with politics; and, the people of Pakistan learn the benefits of standing in a queue.
Wait a minute….!!! You don’t seem to be in your senses. This is outlandish. Yes, we know where the problem lies. Listen carefully what our finance minister recently stated - ‘We know our problems; we know what we need to do. The key is implementation’. This is an all-inclusive statement. Have trust in the present governmental set-up. This time, we are serious about ‘implementation’. Didn’t you hear what the PM said the other day – ‘The next IMF program would be history’s last if all economic targets are met’?
Najm us Saqib
The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan and author of eight books in three languages. He can be reached at najmussaqib1960@msn.com