In a brief series of articles, Murtaza Hussain and Ryan Grim attempted to unravel the intricate political situation that Pakistan has grappled with over the past year and a half. Regrettably, their efforts fell short of the mark. When even local experts on Pakistani politics find it challenging to navigate the complexities, what chance did two Americans, entirely detached from the ground realities of Pakistan, have?
Ryan and Murtaza initially drew the spotlight in Pakistani media on August 9th when they published an article referencing the nowinfamous cipher. They asserted that they had access to a highly controversial document, purportedly the key catalyst behind the removal of Former Prime Minister Khan. In their enthusiasm to uncover America’s dark secrets they might have overlooked the fact that when discussing matters of international geopolitics, it’s inadequate to don tinfoil hats and resort to conspiracy theories.
Journalistic credibility demands a more nuanced and introspective approach, one that is open to exploring all angles of a story. The fact of the matter is that, in the end, even the existence of the ‘Cipher’ (whose transcript The Intercept made public) is not the issue at hand. Countries, particularly superpowers like the United States, have always engaged in hard diplomacy to influence global politics; that is a fundamental concept discussed in any college international relations textbook. It’s simply how superpowers operate. However, the problem with The Intercept’s version of the report lies in how Ryan and Murtaza frame the cipher case. The undeniable facts are that all opposition parties met on February 11, 2022, and announced their intent to initiate a formal vote of no confidence against PM Khan. As reported by The Intercept, the cable is dated March 7, 2022.
The timeline itself suggests that the cipher was not on the cards in the opposition’s considerations when they were contemplating the vote of no confidence. What influence the United States may have had beyond the cable is a highly debatable matter and not something that should be so readily debated in print media without compelling proof—proof that they quite simply fail to provide.
Murtaza and Ryan also expect all their readers to take a massive leap of faith when it comes to taking their articles seriously. Their best source appears to be a ‘disillusioned officer’ from the Pakistani military who supposedly ‘has no affiliation with PTI’ (although their articles strongly echo the PTI narrative). However, this claim has been categorically denied by both the US State Department and the Pakistani Foreign Ministry.
Murtaza also seems to have a tendency to take things out of context. Diplomats and career politicians often choose their words very carefully, and they do so for good reason. Therefore, it’s crucial to exercise great caution when analyzing their statements. It’s unfair both to them and to us when we deconstruct and take their statements out of context. International diplomacy and geopolitics involve a considerable degree of nuance, and it’s imperative to examine them with a similar degree of nuance and sensitivity to the broader context.
The now infamous ‘Closeish’ quote, cited by Murtaza, for example, ignited a firestorm on all social media platforms, with many interpreting it as the smoking gun pointing towards the United States as the primary instigator behind Khan’s removal. However, it’s important to note that this quote lacks context and only presents half of the story, the half that The Intercept insists we focus on. Murtaza’s perception of the impact of his work in Pakistan appears somewhat delusional.
Days later, Murtaza and Ryan authored another article, reinforcing their previous claims. They seemed to have found a crucial piece of evidence when then Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif himself allegedly ‘confirmed’ the contents of the cipher. They quoted him as saying, “Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in the days after the cable was reported, told local media that the leak represented a ‘massive crime,’ while hedging about whether its contents were true.
In the second instance where they quoted the Guardian interview, then prime minister Shehbaz Sharif seemed to be highlighting the irony in former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s shifting stance on the cipher, as Khan himself had changed his position several times, even stating at one point that it never existed. The question then arises: whose statements should we trust?
The fact is that, by all merits, it is simply outrageous that a former Prime Minister failed to exercise every degree of caution entrusted to him. Even if he was being actively pressured by foreign actors, Prime Minister Khan simply should not have gone to political rallies waving around documents of national security in hopes that he would garner political support.
The most recent work by Ryan and Murtaza is in a very similar spirit to their past writings. It once again offers a reductive and detached analysis of the developments in Pakistan since. They paint a grotesque picture of a severe vendetta against Khan. But putting things in perspective, It’s essential to remind ourselves that, rather unfortunately, prison time has served as almost a rite of passage for most leaders in Pakistan. Khan is not the first Prime Minister in jail and will unlikely be the last. However, to even entertain the idea that Prime Minister Khan might be ‘poisoned’ in prison is ludicrous
In the end, it’s important to emphasize that Imran Khan is not a uniquely persecuted figure in Pakistani politics. Despite the alleged military intervention, political victimization, and even assassination attempts, these experiences are not unprecedented in Pakistan’s political arena. Unfortunately, in Pakistan’s history, no Prime Minister has completed their full five-year tenure and Mr Khan was not necessarily special that he needed an international conspiracy to be removed from power.
For PTI and Mr. Khan, it may be a bitter pill to swallow, but all evidence suggests to the contrary when it comes to the cipher case. The simpler truth is likely that Mr. Khan found himself in a challenging political situation where he had the short end of the stick. This he simply deemed unacceptable.
EHMUD SARWAR
— Ehmud is a freelance contributor