I happened to glance through an interesting piece published by an American Think Tank, which underscored the necessity for the USA and its allies to apply the lessons learned from their so-called GWOT with respect to the ideologies of al Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) on their real strategic competitors. According to the said paper, The United States along with its allies and partners devoted critical time and energy to countering the ideology of AQ and ISIS as part of a comprehensive strategy to defeat these groups in the Global War on Terror (GWOT). A reality check on the emergence of AQ/ISIS and conspiracies or different points of view about the 9/11 attacks in the USA and subsequent US/ Allies’ invasion of Afghanistan and other countries in the ME notwithstanding, the world at large has been made to believe that these ideologies, which were part of a larger interpretation of Islam called Jihadi Salafism, formed a critical war-fighting capability for these terrorist groups that explained what was wrong with the world and who was to blame for it, an ideal state for how the world ought to be, and how to get there.
According to the American analyses, ideologies are an important war-fighting capability because they offer an overarching narrative that explains the current state of the world we live in, who is to blame for the suffering and injustice people face, and why violence is needed to right these wrongs. Ideologies perform several important functions in times of prolonged conflict i.e., they encourage recruitment and retention of those supporting the fight, sustaining a fighting force for non-state actors, and provide leaders and followers with a “cause” that they can point back to during military setbacks and provide hope that the fight is not in vain. Throughout the GWOT, the USA/ allies implemented several initiatives aimed at countering the ideologies of AQ and ISIS. However, their words and programs were overshadowed by U.S. and allied military actions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and beyond, which provided key data points for AQ, ISIS, and others of Western aggression toward the Muslim world. Second, the United States specifically lacks credibility over its support of Israel and, by extension, Israel’s actions toward Palestinians and neighbouring countries. Third, key European powers, including France, Belgium, and Great Britain, lack credibility in some parts of the world due to the legacy of colonialism. In other words, the messenger has corrupted the message.
One could also point to the prolonged drone campaign in the former FATA of Pakistan as another example that reinforced the messaging of Salafi Jihadis of Western intentions toward Muslims and the Muslim world. Counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen wrote in a 2009 New York Times op-ed about the negative consequences of U.S.-led drone strikes in Pakistan. He summarized that “while violent extremists may be unpopular, for a frightened population they seem less ominous than a faceless enemy that wages war from afar and often kills more civilians than militants.”
At present, the United States and its allies face greater threats posed by strategic state competitors like emerging China, resurgent Russia and the projected apocalyptic North Korea and Iran. While considerable focus has been placed on these countries’ military capabilities, including their nuclear ambitions, considerably less attention has been paid to understanding and fighting their ideologies. It is the well-considered opinion of the experts in the West that as with AQ, ISIS, and other Salafi Jihadis, ideology plays a critical role in the war-fighting capabilities of our strategic competitors. Therefore, the USA and its allies need to fight both the military capacity as well as the ideologies of strategic adversaries in a synergistic way where both are undermined simultaneously; while remaining extremely careful of increased apocalypticism in our adversaries’ ideologies. That explains the West’s disdain for North Korea, Iran and even Pakistan’s nuclear and missile capabilities; nevertheless, it validates the notion of nuclear deterrence.
India obviously was quicker to learn these lessons and has effectively subjected Pakistan to a synergistic overt and covert effort to undermine Pakistan on all fronts including political, diplomatic, economic, security, cultural onslaught and covert warfare-- call it 5th generation warfare. Like her Western allies and Israel, India believes that at long last, as with other war-fighting capabilities, including materiel, money, industrial, media & cultural capacity, and manpower, the veracity of an ideology will contribute to the intensity and duration of adversaries’ warfighting capabilities. Therefore, while fiercely guarding own National Ideology, Pakistan can neither afford to ignore the extremist policies/ ideology of Modi-led BJP in India and pursuance of the Greater India Dream threatening Pakistan and other SAARC countries, nor disregard ideologies of different non-state actors/ terrorist outfits in order to successfully contest them in all dimensions. For that, it goes without saying that putting Pakistan’s own house in order by paying full respect to the unadulterated 1973 constitution, restoration of political normalcy by respecting the public mandate, fully independent judiciary, apolitical bureaucracy and economic stability ought to be the topmost priority. Any short-circuiting in the suggested steps is prone to make a secure and stable Pakistan a distant dream.
Saleem Qamar Butt
The writer is a retired senior army officer with experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geo-political and strategic security issues.