LAHORE - With just two weeks remaining until the February 8 polls, the electoral landscape of Lahore is overwhelmingly influenced by the PML-N, featuring prominent members of the Sharif family and the party’s second-line leadership, all of whom have previously secured victories in the provincial capital. The PMLN supremo, Mian Nawaz Sharif, along with the party president, senior Vice-president Maryam Nawaz, and Vice-president Hamza Shehbaz, are participating in the elections from Lahore, a historic stronghold for the PML-N. Additionally, five key party figures— Ayaz Sadiq, Khawaja Saad Rafique, Sheikh Rohail Asghar, Rana Mohammad Afzal, and Rana Mubashir—are contesting from Lahore, all of whom have been successful candidates in the National Assembly from the city on multiple occasions.
Also, the PML-N will have an added advantage of all PTI candidates not contesting from their party’s election symbol, “Bat” this time. In the 14 National Assembly constituencies of Lahore, the PML-N has fielded its candidates in 12. Notably, NA-117 and NA-128 have been left open for IPP candidates, Aleem Khan and Awn Chaudhry, as part of a seat adjustment agreement.
An exception to this pattern is NA-127, where PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is contesting against PML-N’s Deputy Secretary Ata Tarar. This marks Bilawal’s first run for a national seat in Lahore, presenting a formidable challenge as he confronts the Sharifs in their political stronghold. Despite the challenge, Bilawal is likely to secure this seat, given the widespread support he has garnered from various political groups and the vigorous campaign he has launched in the city.
NA-130
The PML-N supremo, Mian Nawaz Sharif, is trying to make a comeback in this constituency after a decade, having last contested here in the 2013 elections. His absence in the 2018 general elections resulted from a disqualification by the Supreme Court in 2017. Dr Yasmin Rashid of the PTI emerges as the major contender for the PML-N in this constituency. In the 2013 general elections, Mian Nawaz Sharif defeated her with a substantial margin of around 40,000 votes. Despite her challenging Begum Kalsoon Nawaz in the 2017 by-elections and later Waheed Alam in the 2018 general elections, she narrowly lost both contests. In the current election, Dr. Yasmin Rashid is running from jail without the PTI’s election symbol, “Bat.”
During the 2013 and subsequent elections, Dr. Yasmin focused her campaign on alleged corruption by the Sharif family, advocating for change in the country’s governance system through door-to-door canvassing. However, in the present scenario, Nawaz Sharif has received exoneration from the judiciary that had earlier declared him corrupt, barred him from elections, and labeled him dishonest.
Nawaz Sharif initiated his first election rally in NA-130 last Tuesday, where he received a warm welcome from his supporters. His main rival, Dr. Yasmin Rashid, is currently in prison on allegations related to the May 9 incidents, but remains eligible to contest elections. The PTI is leveraging social media for Dr. Yasmin’s election campaign, with party candidates from provincial seats actively canvassing on her behalf.
Other candidates in the running from NA-130 include Iqbal Ahmad Khan of the PPP, Sufi Khaleequr Rehman Butt of JI, and Khurram Riaz of TLP, but they are considered less likely to pose a significant threat to Mian Nawaz Sharif. There is an eighty percent chance of Mian Nawaz Sharif winning this seat. This constituency encompasses some of Lahore’s oldest neighborhoods, including areas around the shrine of Hazrat Ali Hajveri, a prominent Sufi saint from the 11th century.
NA-130 has historically been a stronghold for the PML-N, covering localities such as Data Darbar, Sant Nagar, Temple Road, Mazang, Taxali Chowk, Mohini Road in Data Darbar area, Bilalganj, Amin Park, Makkah Road, Kasurpura Chowk, Khokhar Town, Mulan Bakhsh Chowk, and the adjoining areas of Mall Road up to Charing Cross. These are established neighborhoods equipped with all the necessary amenities for daily life. However, specific areas grapple with sewerage issues, and local small businesses are not generating sufficient income for the residents. Unemployment and inflation remain as the primary concerns in this constituency.
Provincial constituencies
PP-173
The Punjab Assembly constituency, PP-173, is situated within NA-130. In the upcoming elections, the PML-N has nominated Mian Marghoob Ahmad as its candidate, who will be contesting against Zubair Niazi from the PTI. Mian Marghoob Ahmad previously served as a member of the Punjab Assembly from June 2013 to May 2018 and from August 2018 to January 2023. Additionally, he was a member of the National Assembly of Pakistan from 2008 to 2013. Zubair Niazi, a newcomer and the nephew of PTI founder Imran Khan, is considered to have limited chances of victory in this election. Other contenders in the race include Syed Shahid Abbas Kazmi of the PPP, Mohammad Munir of JI, and Shehzad Yousaf of TLP; however, they are not perceived as significant contenders. Notably, the IPP has not put forward any candidate for this constituency.
PP-174
Bilal Yasin, representing the PML-N, is vying for the PP-174 seat. He held the position of a member of the Punjab Assembly from August 2018 to January 2023 and was an MPA and former cabinet member from June 2013 to May 2018. His primary contender is Ch Asghar Gujjar from the PTI, who was formerly associated with the PPP and served as the Lahore president for PPP during the tenure of the late Salman Taseer, former Punjab Governor. Despite having contested once for a provincial seat, Ch Asghar Gujjar has not been previously elected to the Punjab Assembly. Ameer Hamza of PPP, Mohammad Amir of TLP, and Jabrab Bin Salman of JI are also participating in the race for PP-174.
Bilal Yasin who is closely related to late Begum Kalsoon Nawaz stands a strong chance of securing victory in this constituency.